Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Law enforcement officials arrested 57 protesters during Wednesday’s event organized by the Palestine Solidarity Committee after participants refused to disperse despite demands from authorities and the university [of Texas at Austin]. Of those arrested, 26 were neither students nor faculty of the university, according to officials at UT-Austin.” – Epoch Times via ZeroHedge at...
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nearly-half-those-arrested-ut-austin-pro-palestinian-protest-had-no-links-school
 
"For anyone who understands the role of the free press in a democracy, it should be troubling that President Biden has so actively and effectively avoided questions from independent journalists during his term. The president occupies the most important office in our nation, and the press plays a vital role in providing insights into his thinking and worldview, allowing the public to assess his record and hold him to account. Mr. Biden has granted far fewer press conferences and sit-down interviews with independent journalists than virtually all of his predecessors.” – NY Times
 
Peasant Woman: Well, how’d you become king, then?
 
King Arthur: The Lady of the Lake, her arm clad in the purest shimmering samite, held aloft Excalibur from the bosom of the water, signifying by divine providence that I, Arthur, was to carry Excalibur. That is why I am your king.
 
Dennis: Listen. Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
 
Given the choices this election cycle, we might be better off with a Lady of the Lake.
 

From Michael Ramirez, political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
CRIMINAL CASES AGAINST TRUMP (US News and World Report)
“Indictment 1: Hush Money
Trump’s first indictment on March 30, 2023, centered around his role in reimbursing his former attorney, Michael Cohen, for paying off porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 to keep her quiet about what she says was an extramarital affair she had with Trump a decade earlier...[charged with]... falsifying business records...
 
Indictment 2: Classified Documents
The former president’s second indictment came on June 9, when a grand jury accused him of illegally retaining classified information after he left office, showing some of those documents to individuals without proper clearance and hatching a plan to hide the materials from officials in defiance of a federal subpoena...[charged with]... willful retention of national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record, corruptly concealing a document or record, concealing a document in a federal investigation, scheme to conceal and making false statements...
 
Indictment 3: 2020 Election 
A federal grand jury handed up Trump’s third indictment on Aug. 1 in connection with what prosecutors say were efforts to overturn the results of his 2020 election loss and undermine America’s democracy...[ charged with]... one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States, one count of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, one count of obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and one count of conspiracy against rights....
 
Indictment 4: Georgia RICO and Conspiracy
Trump’s fourth indictment came late on Aug. 14, when a grand jury accused him and more than a dozen of his allies of orchestrating a massive criminal enterprise to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia... Trump attorneys Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro and Atlanta-based bail bondsman Scott Hall have pleaded guilty in the case and were given reduced sentences in exchange for their cooperation with prosecutors... Trump faced 13 charges, including a violation of the state racketeering law, or RICO, solicitation of violation of oath by public officer, conspiracy to commit impersonating a public officer, conspiracy to commit forgery, conspiracy to commit false statements and writings, committing false statements and writings, conspiracy to commit filing false documents and filing false documents.” Story at...
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2023-08-15/explainer-trumps-four-indictments
My cmt: There was a lot more detail in the interesting read.
         
Trump has already been found guilty in one case (not listed above; it’s not a criminal case).
“Judge Arthur Engoron, ruling in a civil lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James, found that Trump and his company deceived banks, insurers and others by massively overvaluing his assets and exaggerating his net worth on paperwork used in making deals and securing loans.” For details see...
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-letitia-james-fraud-lawsuit-1569245a9284427117b8d3ba5da74249
 
The MAGA crowd claims these cases are all about “weaponizing” Government against poor, mistreated Donald.
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." – George Carlin
 
The NY cases are questionable. Any one of the other three should put Trump in prison.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 improved about 0.3% to 5116.
-VIX declined about 2% to 14.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.612%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
 
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) continues to improve and Monday it turned bullish. The Summary is now 8 Bear-signs and 14-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart below continues to look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls minus Bears) has been bottoming and again today, it moved higher.
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:

Today, markets reacted to news in the afternoon that the Treasury Department was going to borrow about $41B more than expected next quarter. This is a worry – the National Debt is now impacting stock markets. As always, I’ll be watching the markets closely.  If the National Debt begins to affect stock market sentiment, we could be in for real trouble. For now, markets are looking ok. We are coming off a 25% bear market that ended two years ago.  It would be unusual to see a crash now, and indicators don’t support it; I am following indicators.
 
As much as we’d like to pretend otherwise, Indicators don’t predict the future. They give a snapshot of current market conditions and trend. For now, the trend is up.
Market indicators suggest that the pullback is over.  Market action over the last 2 days is confirming that conclusion. Could the markets reverse back down? Sure, that’s always possible, but Indicators are bullish and more are on the verge of turning bullish. 
 
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I think the pullback is over. I bought SSO and QLD.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 22 and 23.