Jobless Claims ... Factory Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

        So common on many issues.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Three years ago, we were a great nation, and we will soon be a great nation again.” - Trump at a rally in Michigan yesterday.
My cmt: Please, someone tell Donald not to campaign for Biden. Biden was President three years ago.
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits was unchanged last week and remains historically low as the labor market continues to show resiliency in the face of high interest rates and elevated inflation. The Labor Department reported Thursday that unemployment claims for the week ending April 27 was 208,000...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/number-americans-applying-jobless-claims-remains-historically-low-109865869
 
FACTORY ORDERS (RTT News)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods surged in line with economist estimates in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The Commerce Department said factory orders shot up by 1.6 percent in March...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3444454/u-s-factory-orders-surge-in-line-with-estimates-in-march.aspx
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 5064.
-VIX declined about 5% to 14.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.583%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
 
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved, but it remains close to Neutral with 10 Bear-signs and 11-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart below continues to look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls minus Bears - Purple line) is still moving higher. That is associated with a rising S&P 500.
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:
“[Last week McDonalds]...posted Q1 results that missed revenue growth and same-store sales estimates across its segments, while its earnings also came below expectations. ‘Consumers continue to be even more discriminating with every dollar that they spend as they faced elevated prices in their day-to-day spending, which is putting pressure on the QSR industry,’ CEO Chris Kempczinski said during a call with investors.” From...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-q1-earnings-miss-sales-expectations-as-consumers-tighten-their-wallets-110212872.html
 
The CNBC crowd repeated several times earlier this week that the weak earnings by McDonalds was a sign that the economy was weakening.  This led to the predictable call by some of the regulars that we are headed for a recession. Too bad it isn’t true. Years ago, I looked at McDonalds earnings during the Great Recession of 2008-2009.  McDonalds did great while most stocks tanked.  I’d suggest that the reason was that as people were financially stressed during the recession, they ate at Mickey-D’s rather than Chez-expensive.  The recent McDonalds weakness could be caused by a myriad of problems, even if Mickey D’s claims that lower income people are not dining there as often.  I don’t see a recession any time soon and the market seems to agree with me.
 
Today, I added UWM (2x Russell 2000 - ETF) since the Russell 2000 was outperforming other Indices.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. This is my max % for stock allocation.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 22 and 23.