PCE ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"I’ve worked with Bette Davis, John Wayne, Jimmy Stewart, Henry Fonda. Here’s the thing they all have in common: They all, even in their 70s, worked a little harder than everyone else.” - Ron Howard
 
"This tells you all you need to know about today's Republican National Committee: The person in charge of election integrity for the GOP was just indicted in Arizona for lack of election integrity." – Liz Cheney, former Republican Congresswoman.
 
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST (CNN)
“The Gateway Pundit, the notorious far-right blog and prolific publisher of conspiracy theories, said Wednesday that it had filed for bankruptcy protection as it grapples with litigation related to its coverage of the 2020 election. The move comes as the staunchly pro-Donald Trump website, which promoted the false notion that the 2020 election was stolen by President Joe Biden and his allies, faces multiple lawsuits over its bogus claims.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/media/gateway-pundit-declares-bankruptcy/index.html
 
THEY’RE SO GOOD, NO ONE WANTS TO BUY ONE
“Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/business/ford-earnings-ev-losses/index.html
 
CORE PCE (CNBC)
“The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/pce-inflation-march-2024-key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-2point8percent.html
My cmt: Yesterday’s number that I reported here from Yahoo Finance was the “advance” Core PCE.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 improved about 1% to 5100.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.663%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) improved to Neutral today. The Summary is now 10 Bear-signs and 10-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart below also looks more bullish since the 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls minus Bears) has been bottoming and again today, it turned up.
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Fast Money crowd on CNBC was again talking about how the advance has been narrow with only big names, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, etc., carrying the market.  I don’t know about that. Moving averages of the % of issues advancing on the NYSE for 10, 50 and 100-days are now all above 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues over those periods have advanced. A lot of issues are participating. At the S&P 500 high at the end of March, 13% of all issues on the NYSE made new, all-time highs – that number suggests a broad advance and that if a decline were to occur, it would probably be less than 10%. The max decline from the March high was 5.5%, five sessions ago.
 
I’ve been saying for several days that I think the pullback is over.  Today, it looks like the market is starting to agree with me.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I think this pullback is over and Monday I’ll place some more bets in that direction by adding trading positions in SSO and QLD.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.