Consumer Confidence ... Chicago PMI ... Employment Cost Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated for the third consecutive month in April, retreating to 97.0 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Despite these three months of weakness, the gauge continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range that’s largely held steady for more than two years.” Story at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
CHICAGO PMI (RTT News)
“The report said the Chicago business barometer slipped to 46.0 in January from an upwardly revised 47.2 in December, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction.”
https://www.rttnews.com/3420745/chicago-business-barometer-unexpectedly-indicates-faster-contraction-in-january.aspx
 
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (CNN)
“A closely watched measure of labor costs showed that compensation growth accelerated much faster than expected during the first three months of the year, providing an unwelcome data point for Federal Reserve officials looking for inflation pressures to ease. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose a seasonally adjusted 1.2% last quarter, faster growth than the 0.9% increase the prior quarter...” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/30/economy/employment-cost-index-eci-wages-q1/index.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.6%% to 5036.
-VIX rose about 7% to 15.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.682%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
 
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) slipped to Neutral with 11 Bear-signs and 11-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart below continues to look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls minus Bears - purple line) is clearly moving higher. That is  associated with a rising S&P 500.
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Markets were weak all day and closed very near their lows. It’s just one day though.  Markets are spooked by the Fed meeting Wed and Thursday and the weaker than expected data we’ve seen rececntly.  There’s still talk about the low GDP number. The experts have pointed out that it was low due to volitile data associated with imports and exports.  Those  numbers are expected to improved and the next GDP number should improve handily.
 
Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms occur on statistically-significant, down-days, since they tend to be flush out days that shake out weak hands; but not all statistically-significant, down-days are bottoms.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
The pullback is over, but the S&P 500 could always retest its low. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 22 and 23.