Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“It was Thomas Edison who brought us electricity, not the
Sierra Club. It was the Wright brothers who got us off the ground, not the
Federal Aviation Administration. It was Henry Ford who ended the isolation of
millions of Americans by making the automobile affordable, not Ralph Nader.
Those who have helped the poor the most have not been those who have gone
around loudly expressing 'compassion' for the poor, but those who found ways to
make industry more productive and distribution more efficient, so that the poor
of today can afford things that the affluent of yesterday could only dream
about.”
― Thomas Sowell
"No president has had the
run we’ve had in terms of creating jobs and bringing down inflation. It was 9% when I came to office -
9%." – Joe Biden, the Man Who Would be President.
My cmt: Sorry, Mr. President;
the correct answer is, there was 1.4% inflation when you took office. This is
just another case of Biden’s declining faculties. What were
others saying in the early days of Biden’s
Presidency?”
"If I was Darth Vader and
I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in the
middle of an already hot economy...This is the biggest bubble I've seen in my
career." - Stanley Druckenmiller, billionaire investor. (27 July 2021,
back when the CPI was around 3.0. and before the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.)
Fortunately, Mr. Druckenmiller was wrong about the overall economy – it didn’t
collapse. But the trillions in spending in
those two acts were contributors to inflation that peaked at 9% in June of
2022, well into Biden’s term.
BIDENS’ ‘GRAND BARGAN’ ILLUSION BEGINS AT RAFAH
(Jerusalem Times via msn.com)
“Biden and Secretary of State Blinken are aiming for the
diplomatic equivalent of a moon shot, the Nobel Peace Prize, and, not
incidentally, victory in the November elections... And it begins in Rafah,
through orchestrating a stalemate and ceasefire that prevents Israel from
totally defeating and uprooting Hamas as the dominant Palestinian terror
organization and the rulers of Gaza. The problem (and it is a very big
one) is that the entire scenario is built on a foundation of wishful thinking,
not history and political realism. Similarly, the triumphant 1993 Oslo “peace”
plan was based on the same illusions, and ended in the disaster known as the
Second Intifada, in which over 1000 Israelis were murdered in mass bombings,
and thousands more died on the Palestinian side....
...For Hamas, the freezing of weapons deliveries, the
wider conflict between Washington and Jerusalem, and demands for a ceasefire on
their terms are a huge gift, including continuing to use every last
brutalized Israeli hostage to squeeze out more concessions... successful
diplomacy must be based on realism, in contrast to wishful thinking and
illusions of a “grand bargain.” Peace between Israel and the Palestinians will
only come when the expectations overlap with political realism. Until then,
Israel, under Netanyahu and whoever comes next, will do what is necessary to
defend its citizens.” Commentary at...
Biden's
'Grand Bargain' illusion starts at Rafah (msn.com)
“The messaging to our enemies, in short, is clear:
however appalling your crimes, the Western public will have your backs. Fearing
confrontation, their leaders will bend to the pressure. Terrorism works, at
least when it comes to massacring Jews. God help us.” - Jake Wallis Simons, editor of the Jewish
Chronicle and author of Israelophobia.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (CNN)
“First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose
last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, in another sign that the
white-hot labor market is starting to cool off.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/economy/jobless-claims-highest-level-since-august/index.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5214.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.459%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) remained bullish at 9 Bear-signs and 15-Bull. (The rest are
neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those
are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of
spread (purple line in the chart below) continues to improve, a bullish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The payroll numbers were weak and today seemed to be another
case of bad news is good news.
Basic Market Internals looked good today. Advancing
volume and advancing stocks were both more than twice declining volume and
declining stocks, respectively. There
were 193 New-highs and 18 New-lows. These are bullish numbers...not much more
to say.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish. The S&P 500 is headed back to all-time,
new highs.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
I forgot to update this chart
yesterday, but below is Friday’s chart. DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually
about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position.
This is my max % for stock allocation.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 22 and 23.
