“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Beijing announced a broad package of economic measures targeting the United States on Tuesday, hitting back after US President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports... The Chinese tariffs target at most $20 billion of the country’s annual imports from the US, about 12% of the total, which is “a far cry” from the more than $450 billion in Chinese goods being targeted by the US. Beijing had slammed those tariffs in a statement Sunday and vowed to “resolutely defend its rights” by filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and taking “corresponding countermeasures.” In a statement Tuesday, China’s commerce ministry confirmed that it had brought the Trump administration’s tariff measures to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/04/business/china-us-trade-retaliation-hnk-intl/index.html
“The Commerce Department said factory orders slumped by 0.9 percent in December after sliding by a downwardly revised 0.8 percent in November. Economists had expected factory orders to fall by 0.7 percent compared to the 0.4 percent decline originally reported for the previous month.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3509059/u-s-factory-orders-slump-more-than-expected-in-december.aspx
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 6038.
-VIX declined about 8% to 17.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.513%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
SPY – Sold 2/3. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025.
The decline in Nvidia appears to be overblown. Regarding
competition to Nvidia, Dan Ives (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research
Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities) says, “The
threat is minimal.” He recommended buying Nvidia. I will hold NVDA and see what
develops...
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) remained +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained a Neutral +2. The 10-dMA of the spread is still falling, a bearish sign.
Tariff news continues to bounce around. Now the Chinese are
suing the U.S. over tariffs and banning some U.S. goods. Who knows where this
will all lead?
I am more conservatively positioned at this point. When I went thru my holdings and calculated
my stock percentages after the sales I made Monday, I found that I have 60%
invested in stocks (including ETFs, funds, and actual stocks). That’s close enough at this point.
Indicators are warning now, but indicators don’t predict
the future, i.e., indicators could reverse upward tomorrow along with the stock
market. There was at least one signal suggesting that possibility.
Monday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often
said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market
turning points. Are markets turning back up? Perhaps, the best we can say is
that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my
indicators because it is often wrong.
We’ll see...
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral and fully invested –50% 60% in stocks.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs, but I need
to check the numbers. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my
max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30%
in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) remained +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained a Neutral +2. The 10-dMA of the spread is still falling, a bearish sign.
I am neutral and fully invested –
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
