Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“In his outrage over President Trump’s order to pause
federal grants, Sen. Chuck Schumer protested that “virtually any
organization, school, state, police office, county, town or community depends
on federal grant money to run its day-to-day operations” (“The Spending Freeze Panic,” Review & Outlook, Jan. 30).
That statement tells you all you need to know about the bloated federal
government Sen. Schumer has helped build over four decades.” - Richard Brown,
WSJ Letters to the editor at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-schumer-has-wrought-senator-new-york-spending-67d950f6?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9
“The famed short-seller [Jim Chanos] said he believes the
market is approaching speculative extremes last seen during the pandemic market
mania. That could eventually lead to a more challenging environment for
investors... He pointed to the flurry of new meme coins hitting the market in recent months as a
sign of the speculative fervor, with President Donald Trump rolling out $Trump
coin in the weekend leading up to the inauguration... Markets,
though, are most at risk of something completely unforeseen, he added.” Story
at...
A
legendary short-seller says speculation in markets is nearing historic extremes
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“More Americans filed unemployment claims last week, but
the labor market remains healthy and there are still relatively few layoffs. U.S.
applications for jobless benefits rose by 11,000 to 219,000 for the week ending
February 1, the Labor Department said Thursday. Analysts were projecting only
213,000 new applications.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-3d5f43e513f28b510c64a3fcc0a63cd2
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6084.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.50.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.434%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022
lows. Added more 9/20.
SSO – Sold 2/3. (IRA acct.)
SPY – Sold 2/3. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025.
The decline in Nvidia appears to be overblown. Regarding
competition to Nvidia, Dan Ives (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research
Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities) says, “The
threat is minimal.” He recommended buying Nvidia. I will hold NVDA and see what
develops...
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs
and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to
a Bullish +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread is still falling, a bearish sign, but other signs look
more important.
The daily bull-bear spread of the 50-indicators has been
improving and for now that is the bullish sign that is critical.
I may still reset a trading position in SSO (2x S&P
500 ETF), but I won’t be increasing the overall percentage of stocks invested
in the portfolio by very much. At this point I think it is wise to be somewhat
cautious.
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – 60% in stocks.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs, but I need
to check the numbers. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my
max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30%
in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
