ADP Employment ... ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
TODAY IN ENERGY (EIA)

Chart from...
https://www.eia.gov/
 
“In his outrage over President Trump’s order to pause federal grants, Sen. Chuck Schumer protested that “virtually any organization, school, state, police office, county, town or community depends on federal grant money to run its day-to-day operations” (“The Spending Freeze Panic,” Review & Outlook, Jan. 30). That statement tells you all you need to know about the bloated federal government Sen. Schumer has helped build over four decades.” - Richard Brown, WSJ Letters to the editor at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-schumer-has-wrought-senator-new-york-spending-67d950f6?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP)
“Hiring momentum in the last quarter of 2024 carried into January with some exceptions, including manufacturing. ‘We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market. Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.’” - Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP
https://adpemploymentreport.com/
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING PMI (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month in January, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The Services PMI^® registered 52.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 53rd time in 56 months since recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began in June 2020.” Report at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/january/
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 8.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year. Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 6061.
-VIX declined about 8% to 15.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.422%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
 
SSO – Sold 2/3. (IRA acct.)
SPY – Sold 2/3. (IRA acct.)
QLD – added 12/20. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025.
 
The decline in Nvidia appears to be overblown. Regarding competition to Nvidia, Dan Ives (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities) says, “The threat is minimal.” He recommended buying Nvidia. I will hold NVDA and see what develops... 
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 7 gave Bear-signs and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to a moderately Bullish +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA of the spread is still falling, a bearish sign, but other signs look more important.
 
The daily bull-bear spread of the 50-indicators turned up today.  The S&P 500 turned up from its 50-dMA and lower trend line. That looks bullish for now. Markets have forgotten the tariffs or at least are operating under the assumption that they may never be fully instated. I suspect the Mexico – Canada tariffs won’t happen. China? Who knows.  
 
I might reset one of my trading positions in SSO (2x S&P 500 ETF), but I won’t be increasing the overall percentage of stocks invested in the portfolio by very much. At this point I think it is wise to be somewhat cautious.  
 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish – 60% in stocks.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs, but I need to check the numbers. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.