NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
Tuesday, April 1, 2025
Can Trump be President for a Third Term ... ISM Manufacturing ... Construction Spending ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. “President Donald Trump has often mused, even joked,
about seeking a third term, but over the weekend he made his strongest and most
serious comments yet on a move that constitutional scholars ABC News spoke with
call virtually impossible. ‘I'm not joking...There are methods which you could
do it,’ Trump said, including a scenario in which Vice President JD Vance ran
at the top of the 2028 ticket with Trump as his running mate, only for Trump to
assume the Oval Office after the election...”
Story at... Trump
again floats possibly seeking 3rd term. The Constitution bars it, scholars say “I will end the Ukraine war on the first day of my third
term.” – Donald Trump, 1 April 2025. COULD TRUMP BE PRESIDENT FOR A THIRD TERM? (NTSM) Not easily. Trump can’t be elected President
again. The 22nd Amendment states: “No person shall be elected to
the office of the President more than twice...” Trump’s suggestion that he could run on a ticket as Vice President
and become President for a third term when the elected President resigned doesn’t
work; it violates the Constitution’s 12th amendment. The 12 Amendment
states: “...no person constitutionally ineligible to the
office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United
States.” Trump could try to amend the Constitution, a near
impossibility. Trump could try an illegal method like the scheme he tried
in 2020. If he ran and lost the 2028 election (assuming the Supreme Court
allowed him to run), he could put forth phony electors as he did in 2020. If
Vice president Vance refused to certify the election (due to confusion over the
electors), the House of Representatives could select Trump. That assumes the
GOP still controls the House and they remain spineless. Trump tried that trick to overturn the 2020
election, but Mike Pence followed the Constitution and certified the election despite
Trump. Trump could have been jailed, but
the Democrats delayed prosecution until it was too late. – Meade Stith, NTSM. ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM) “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49 percent in
March, 1.3 percentage points lower compared to the 50.3 percent recorded in
February. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 59th month after
one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3
percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall
economy.)” Report from... https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/march/ CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (RTT News) “Partly reflecting a jump by spending on residential
construction, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing U.S.
construction spending increased by more than expected in the month of February...
construction spending climbed by 0.7 percent to an annual rate of $2.196
trillion in February...” Story at... https://www.rttnews.com/3526000/u-s-construction-spending-climbs-more-than-expected-in-february.aspx MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 5633. -VIX declined about 2% to 21.77. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.161%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined and
remained bearish at -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators)
- the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish sign. There were only 3 Bullish indicators out of the 50 or so
that I track. This suggests a retest of the prior low is still more likely than
not. The S&P 500 has not retested the prior low of 5522 on 13 March. The
S&P 500 dropped below the prior low intraday on 31 March and the CNBC crowd
mentioned it today. While that may be encouraging, my work relies on a retest
at the close, not intraday. We won’t know anything until the S&P 500 retests the
old low. When it does, we may have a
better idea whether there will be more downside. The S&P 500 is 1.8% above
the prior low. BOTTOM LINE I am neutral because I suspect that a retest will be
successful. After time has passed, they usually are. If the Trump tariff talk
winds down, investors may settle down. If not, I’ll turn more bearish. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
