NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News) “Jobless claim filings fell by 6,000 to 219,000 for the
week ending March 29, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s less than the
226,000 new applications analysts forecast.” Story at... https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-7fbff64930a247667fdc2a2ee271b2eb ISM SERVICES (ISM via PR Newswire) "In March, the Services PMI® registered 50.8
percent, 2.7 percentage points lower than the February figure of 53.5 percent.
The Business Activity Index registered 55.9 percent in March, 1.5 percentage
points higher than the 54.4 percent recorded in February. This is the index's
58th consecutive month of expansion...There has been a significant increase
this month in the number of respondents reporting cost increases due to tariff
activity. Despite an increase in comments on tariff impacts and continuing
concerns over potential tariffs and declining governmental spending, there was
a close balance in near-term sentiment, between panelists with good outlooks
and those seeing or expecting declines." Press release at... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-50-8-march-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302418828.html MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 4.8% to 5397. -VIX jumped about 40% to 30.02. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.038%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 21 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
Thanks, Donald. We needed a flush out, but I would have
liked it to be smaller. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined and
remained bearish at -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators)
- the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish sign. Thursday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. After a 4% down day, I think it is likely that tomorrow
will be up, but It doesn’t help that tomorrow is Friday since investors may not
want to hold stocks over the weekend. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near
Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days
occur at bottoms. In addition, I have another statistical measure that was
triggered. I call that indicator the Panic indicator and today we saw panic. This
signal requires some consideration because at tops, the Panic indicator is a
sell-signal – at bottoms, it is a buy-signal. While I am treating it as a
buy-signal today, it is only one signal and I won’t buy based on this one
indicator. There were other buy-signals (Bollinger Bands; Breadth vs
the S&P 500; Money Trend; Smart Money) but only 40% of the ETF’s I track
were above their 120-dMA’s.That’s not a
number associated with a significant bottom. More importantly, volume was huge today indicating more
selling and fear when compared to the prior low. Today was not a bottom – but it
might be close. A close very near today’s low would probably indicate
it’s time to buy, assuming internals are significantly improved. On the other
hand, if the S&P 500 falls well below today’s low it suggests more selling.
We’ll see... BOTTOM LINE I am bearish at this point, but perhaps there will be a
bottom soon. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
