... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"Investors should not try to ‘catch a falling knife...This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences...Trump can’t back down anytime soon...He’s too macho for that.” – Bill Gross,
 
THOUSANDS OF NORTH KOREAN IT WORKERS HAVE INFILTRATED FORTUNE 500 COMPANIES (Fortune)
“Fortune 500 companies have unwittingly hired thousands of software engineers who claim to be American developers but are actually North Korean citizens using stolen or fake identities...The U.S. Treasury, State Department, and FBI collectively estimate the IT workers scam has generated hundreds of millions each year since 2018... About 95% of the résumés Harrison Leggio gets in response to job postings for his crypto startup g8keep are from North Korean engineers pretending to be American, the founder estimates...Nowadays, Leggio told Fortune he won’t even set up an interview with a candidate who seems promising on paper unless they agree to one final step. 
“Say something negative about Kim Jong Un,” Leggio tells potential job candidates, referring to the third-generation authoritarian Supreme Leader of North Korea...'The first time I ever did it, the person started freaking out and cursing,' said Leggio." Story at...  
Thousands of North Korean IT workers have infiltrated the Fortune 500—and they keep getting hired for more jobs
 
“U.S. oil prices dropped below $60 a barrel on Sunday on fears President Donald Trump’s global tariffs would push the U.S., and maybe the world, into a recession. Futures tied to U.S. West Texas intermediate crude fell more than 3% to $59.74 on Sunday night. The move comes after back-to-back 6% declines last week. WTI is now at the lowest since April 2021.” – Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/us-crude-oil-falls-below-60-a-barrel-to-lowest-since-2021-on-tariff-fueled-recession-fears.html
My cmt: CNBC was reporting last week that Goldman Sachs was now estimating a 60% chance of recession.
 
“Wall Street's main indexes reversed course {Monday morning] and moved sharply higher after White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said in an interview that President Donald Trump was considering a 90-day tariff pause on all countries expect China.” – Reuters.
My cmt: This was called “Fake News” by the White House and markets fell after the White House announcement.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5062.
-VIX rose about 4% to 46.98.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.203% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
NONE
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 25 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
All 5 of the bullish indicators are related to the oversold markets. The latest bull-indicator is one that often signals near bottoms. It is currently showing that none of the ETFs I track are above their respective 120-day moving averages. Unfortunately, this indicator can be early. In October of 2022, this indicator gave a bullish-signal more than 3-months early.
 

 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved slightly, but remained bearish at -20 (20 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish sign.
 
Volume declined today, but internals did not support a bottom. Internals were poor today: Down-volume was nearly twice up-volume; declining issues outpaced advancing issues by nearly 4 to 1; and there were 1334 new-lows and only 1 new-high. With those stats it’s surprising that the S&P 500 was only down 12 points.
 
The odds suggest “No bottom yet,” but there could always be a bounce.
 
If markets are in Waterfall Phase of a correction, a bounce is not likely to last more than a session or two. It could be a violent bounce though. I mentioned yesterday, “During the 34% corona-virus decline in 2020 there was a 12% down-day that was preceded by two down-days higher than 9%.” When I was looking back at the data I noticed a mistake. The 12% down-day was preceded by a 9% down-day and a 9% up-day; not two 9% down-days. Thus, we see that even a huge up-day does not mean the bottom is in.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
All of the ETFs I track are below their 120-dMA the chart is blowing up. None have positive momentum.
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Since almost all the Dow 30 stocks are below their 120-dMA, the chart is blowing up. The only 3 Dow stocks with positive momentum are KO (#1) and VZ (#2) and McDonalds (#3).
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.