NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET FOCUSES ON:
(1) Daily momentum analysis of the DOW 30 stocks and 15 ETFs across various market sectors.
(2) Stock Market commentary and analysis.
(3) Buy/Sell signals for major market turns.
(((The blog is for information only. You assume all risk of its use; we don’t warrant the accuracy of our content. You must do your own due diligence.)))
"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in
large groups." – George Carlin “Two things are infinite: the universe and human
stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire. “Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund. “In his outrage over President Trump’s order to pause
federal grants, Sen. Chuck Schumer protested that “virtually any
organization, school, state, police office, county, town or community depends
on federal grant money to run its day-to-day operations” (“The Spending Freeze Panic,” Review & Outlook, Jan. 30).
That statement tells you all you need to know about the bloated federal
government Sen. Schumer has helped build over four decades.” - Richard Brown,
WSJ Letters to the editor at... https://www.wsj.com/opinion/what-schumer-has-wrought-senator-new-york-spending-67d950f6?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9 FACTORY ORDERS (Breaking the News) “New orders for manufactured goods in the United States
saw a monthly rise of 0.6% or $3.6 billion to land at $594.0 billion in
February...” Story at... https://breakingthenews.net/Article/US-factory-orders-up-by-0.6-in-February/63845819 CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA) “U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.2 million barrels from the
previous week. At 439.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at... https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY -Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5671. -VIX declined about 1% to 21.51. -The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.127%
(compared to about this time prior market day). MY TRADING POSITIONS: XLK added 3/24/2025 SPY added 3/25/2025 CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS: Today, of the 50-Indicators
I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top
or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved a
little, but remained bearish at -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull
indicators) - the 10-dMA of the spread continued down – another bearish
sign. S&P 500 futures are down about 2.7% on Trump tariff
news as I write today’s blog. The retracement from the correction-low to the all-time
high was about 40% (solid arrow on the above chart). As of today’s close, the
retracement from the 28 March low to the 25 March correction high was 44%
(another solid arrow on the chart). From a technical standpoint, the second
bounce may be over. As I write this, the markets are falling hard due to more
tariff talk so that is confirming an end to this bounce. If the after-market action and futures are correct, S&P
500 is likely to retest the correctio-low on Thursday.When it does, we may have a better idea
whether there will be more downside. Unfortunately, tomorrow’s test is not
likely to be successful – fear is likely to drive volume thru the roof. BOTTOM LINE I am cautiously neutral – I suspect an end to the
correction is near, but that’s what I think; indicators may show otherwise. ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS: TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF. *For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at… http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50%
invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I
am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market
position.) I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
