“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
DECOY DAN (WSJ - Excerpt)
“Democrats pulled a dirty trick by enlisting a decoy, Daniel J. Sullivan [no party affiliation], to run against Republican Alaska Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. Now they are indignant that the Trump Administration on Thursday filed a lawsuit that calls attention to their subterfuge. Please spare us the lectures about election interference… Democrats deny they are behind the ruse, but their fingerprints are all over it. Daniel J. Sullivan voted for Democrats in the prior three presidential elections and for Democratic nominee Mary Peltola when she ran for the House. There’s evidence that a Democratic consultant also helped launch his campaign… The lawsuit is a legal Hail Mary, but its real purpose before the election is to educate Alaska voters now beginning to pay attention about the Democratic trick. Who’s really undermining trust in elections?” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-administration-lawsuit-alaska-senate-race-dan-sullivan-64bd9f90
My cmt: Daniel J Sullivan is a retired teacher who formerly worked for the US Forest Service. He says he is running on his own accord. It takes a lot of effort to get on a ballot in most states, but not Alaska. Alaska does not require a petition of the state’s voters to be a Senatorial candidate. Given that fact, it is surprising there aren’t more candidates running. But I guess most Alaskans know that without an advertising budget, there is no chance of being elected; so why waste the $300 filing fee?
“Justice Kagan has to her credit mostly resisted the vitriolic criticisms that her liberal colleagues, Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson, have leveled against the Court’s conservatives… But this week, in the heat of the midterm election, she couldn’t resist taking the majority to task. “The court has . . . blinded itself to the very deleterious effects of their rulings on how the political system works,” Justice Kagan said during a discussion at Catholic University’s law school in Washington, D.C… Justice Kagan also said in her remarks that the Court’s recent decision to limit the use of race in drawing district lines discounted the damage to the districts of black Democrats in the South. “The court kind of said, ‘Oh well,’” Justice Kagan said.
No, it didn’t. The majority properly explained that carving up districts by race is a sordid business that violates the Constitution. It’s hard to see how guaranteeing a seat by race is democratic… Justice Kagan is right that partisan gerrymanders at the current political moment are reducing the number of competitive elections and “driving people away from the center, toward the wings, toward the extremes,” as she put it. But that dishonor belongs to the political classes, not to the Justices.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/elena-kagan-democracy-gerrymandering-district-maps-judges-d9e4adec
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.07 in September, exceeding the -0.1 consensus and indicating increased economic growth compared with August's -0.08 reading (revised from -0.04), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Monday.” Commentary at…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:72842de2f094b:0-chicago-fed-national-activity-index-swings-to-positive-territory-in-september/
“Texas manufacturing output growth eased in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 14 points to 15.8, but remained above its series average, indicating a slower yet still solid pace of expansion.” Report at…
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2026/2610
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 7677.
-VIX declined about 5% to 18.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.997% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -10 to -9 (9 More Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
