“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“Democrats recruited potential spoilers in Alaska's US Senate race, the New York Times reported on Wednesday. Aides to Mary Peltola, the Senate Democratic nominee, worked with the campaign's lawyers and senior staff at Senate Democrats' campaign arm to recruit two candidates who are on the ballot and could siphon votes from incumbent Republican US Senator Dan Sullivan, according to the Times.” Story at…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/democrats-recruited-spoilers-alaska-senate-181107256.html
My cmt: I have never seen the TY Times criticize Democrats. As a left-leaning paper, if the Times says the Dems did it, I believe the Times.
https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-growing-threat-3906814/?utm_campaign=widget&utm_medium=topnews&utm_source=opinion_michael-ramirez&utm_term=CARTOON%3A%20Growing%20threat
“The U.S. national debt reached 100% of gross domestic product for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, hitting the triple-digit mark for the first time since 1946…
… The outlook is rough. Social Security is projected to reach insolvency in 2032, triggering automatic benefit cuts unless Congress acts. Net interest costs, the most immovable object in the budget, are projected to climb by more than 1% of GDP over the next decade, according to CBO.
And that forecast from earlier this year assumed interest rates well below today’s prevailing rates. If all interest rates are 0.1 percentage point above CBO’s forecasts, that adds $379 billion in interest costs over a decade.” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/federal-debt-hits-100-of-gdp-585d3cb0
“France could be a sign of what awaits. Its debts and deficits are in the same league as the U.S., although its economy is weaker. Attempts to curb spending have brought down four prime ministers in three years. As investors lost hope of any fix, they began dumping French bonds, sending yields soaring and slowing an already weak economy. So what happened to Washington’s fiscal hawks—the political leaders concerned about debt and prepared to curb red ink? They hit a wall of indifference and retired, lost elections, changed the subject or became doves…
… With fiscal hawks largely gone from the halls of power, it’s not clear who or what will bring them back.
“Voters say they care about the deficit, but very, very few will accept higher taxes or spending cuts to get there,” said Jessica Riedl, a longtime Republican budget aide who is now an analyst at the Brookings Institution…
…Perhaps if another G-7 country experiences enough pain, U.S. leaders will move, said Michael Faulkender, a University of Maryland finance professor who was a senior Treasury Department official during both Trump administrations.
“Is it going to be Great Britain or is it going to be France that fails first? And is that finally going to be the wake-up call?” he said. “I hope we can learn from somebody else going through that scenario as opposed to us having to live it.” Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/fiscal-hawks-national-debt-midterms-gdp-8b7a950d
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered 55.5 percent in October, 1 percentage point above the September figure of 54.5 percent. The overall economy expanded for the 24th month in a row. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-55-5-october-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302925617.html
“US construction spending tumbled in September, nearly reversing the prior month's upwardly revised jump, likely because high materials costs depressed outlays on residential renovation projects.
The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Monday that construction spending fell 1.9% after an upwardly revised 2.0% increase in August.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-construction-spending-tumbles-september-2026-11-02/
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7541.
-VIX rose about 9% to 21.15.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.912% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to zero (Equal Bull indicators and Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, reversed higher, a BULLISH sign.
- 3.5% below its all-time high
- 2% below its 50-dMA
- 1% below its 100-dMA
- 3.1% above its 200-dMA
I’m Bullish, but sometimes these signals are early, or less often, wrong. I’ll watch to see how markets act. I’d like the markets (other investors) to confirm my buy-signal. If buying is strong late in the day, I’ll add to stock holdings.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
