Fed Rate Decision … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRUMP DOJ REBUKED (AP News)
“The Justice Department on Tuesday failed to secure a grand jury indictment against a former White House staffer who provided dramatic but disputed testimony against President Donald Trump before a House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol insurrection, according to two people familiar with the matter… Republican lawmakers had accused her of lying under oath in her explosive testimony in 2022 about Trump’s behavior on Jan. 6, when a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol to halt the congressional certification of his election loss to Democrat Joe Biden.” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/cassidy-hutchinson-trump-indictment-65b19759933189cdebb164c5bd80649c
 
FED RATE DECISION (CNBC)
“The Federal Reserve held steady on rates at the conclusion of its October meeting, maintaining its target range of 3.75% to 4%. Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee dissented from the decision: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were in favor of raising rates by a quarter percentage point.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 7744.
-VIX declined about 3% to 16.91.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 5.011% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -1 (1 More Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, improved but continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
Same as Tuesday, if we look at only the Bull indicators, we note that the 20-dMA of bull indicators continued higher today. That’s a good sign. As I wrote yesterday, perhaps the long, stock-market malaise is ending.
 
The S&P 500 is only 1% below its all-time-high and 0.6% above its 50-dMA. That’s the norm for the chart pattern. The bearish, rising wedge-pattern remains, but it can become a bullish sign if the Index can break above the upper trend line.  If it doesn’t break higher, we are likely to see a rapid decline.  
 
Breadth has improved some, but overall, the indicators are still in the doldrums, so I can’t feel bullish.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m Neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.