Wednesday, April 29, 2026

FED Meeting … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
TRAGIC DAY FOR THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC (Quora Digest)
“Yesterday(Monday) was a tragic day for the Islamic Republic and the so-called axis of resistance (Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas). Fu’ad Shokr, the prominent Hezbollah figure, and Ismail Haniyeh, the number one figure of Hamas, were assassinated. Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran proved to what extent the Islamic Republic is vulnerable. Traditionally, Muslims pray for the deceased before burying them. Given the importance of Haniyeh, Khamenei performed his funeral prayer. But his reaction was interesting; he looked around constantly as if a projectile was coming from the sky.” Story at…
 
FED MEETING RESULTS (CNBC)
“An unusually divided Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its key interest rate steady as policymakers grappled with the policy impact of persistent inflation and awaited a looming leadership transition at the central bank…  the meeting saw a dramatic turn amid a groundswell of officials who opposed messaging that further rate cuts could be ahead. Amid expectations for a routine vote to hold the benchmark funds rate steady, the FOMC instead was split along 8-4 lines, with officials expressing different reasons for their vote.” Story at…
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.04% to 7134.
-VIX rose about 6% to 18.81.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.426% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +6 to -1 (1 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations remained down, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
As noted previously, we can see a clear divergence between the indicators and the S&P 500 in the above chart. For now, I suspect that the markets will retrace about half of their gains. That would imply a 5-7% drop from the recent high.
 
Another possibility is that the S&P 500 might retest its low of 6344. That alternative is probably less likely since the Index made new highs off the low.
 
Since I am not expecting declines greater than 10%, I will hold my existing positions and look for a buying opportunity to deploy my cash reserves.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023. 

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