Retail Sales … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
From a Facebook meme…
A beautiful woman said, “Hi” to me at the grocery store.
Me: Do we know each other?
Her: I think you’re the father of one of my kids!
Me: OMG! Are you one of the strippers from my Bachelor Party?!
Her: No, I am your son’s teacher.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
HIGH YIELD BONDS FLASH WARNING (McClellan Publications)

“The daily Advance-Decline (A-D) Line for high yield corporate bonds is making a bearish divergence versus the SP500.  This is a concern because it conveys a message saying that there are liquidity problems…This is not a trend change "signal".  It is just a warning of trouble, and one which could get rehabilitated.  It will bear watching in the days ahead, especially as the calendar now transitions into the worst 6 months of the year.” - Tom McClellan, Editor, The McClellan Market Report. Analysis at…
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/high_yield_bonds_flash_warning/
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans filing for jobless aid rose last week but remains historically low despite the economic uncertainty caused by the war in Iran. U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the the week ending May 9 rose by 12,000 to 211,000…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-b57b326ca4c4b04cf3881e80d5a48a90
 
RETAIL SALES (CNN)
“Retail sales climbed 0.5% in April from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Thursday, down from March’s 1.6% and marking the third consecutive monthly increase.” Story at… 
https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/14/economy/us-retail-sales-consumer-spending-april
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 improved about 0.8% to 7501.
-VIX declined about 3% to 17.26.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.483% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“Despite all the bearish noise, Goldman Sachs isn’t backing down on Nvidia (NVDA) stock yet. After another stellar GTC showing, the bank reiterated its $250 price target and maintained a buy rating, underscoring confidence in the AI giant’s tremendous upside from current levels.” Story at…  
Goldman Sachs sends blunt message on Nvidia stock after GTC
SSO – Sold 5/14/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 11 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +7 to +3 (3 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower, a BEARISH sign that is more important than the daily numbers.
 
Regular readers know that I read Paul Schatz’s blog at Heritage Capital with some regularity. Because of Paul, I have been following a “possible” indicator (It’s not in my 50-indicator system yet), Junk minus S&P 500 Spread. Here’s the current chart showing a trend similar to the one indicated by Tom McClellan’s “divergence” in the Advance-decline lines of Junk bonds and the S&P 500 Index (above). Junk Bonds act like stocks so when there is divergence it can be a signal that many follow. In my chart below, falling spread (Green line) indicates trouble.

 
We did not get another Hindenburg Omen today – that’s good, but the Omen remains in effect for 30-days except when the McClellan Oscillator is positive.
Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there is a cluster of Omens. We saw three, Monday thru Wednesday.
 
The S&P 500 made a new, all-time, high today (Wednesday). 132 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week-highs today; that is below the 5-year average for this stat, but high enough to avoid trouble. Breadth, as measured by issues advancing on the NYSE, is ok too; we don’t need to worry about a correction >10% anytime soon. Since the S&P 500 recently had a 9% correction, the likelihood of another seems unlikely, so that’s one reason I’m guessing 3-5%. Even 5% may be too high, given the bullish mood of investors.
 
I sold my SSO position Thursday, because I got a top-signal, mid-day on Thursday. I posted a discussion on the reasons earlier.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but indicators suggest that we may see a short-term retreat of 3-5%.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.