Thursday, May 14, 2026

Short Term Top?

 
Top Signals warned of a Top at mid-day. The chart below is a plot of Top / Bottom signals; it was -6 (Top Warning) at today’s high. If the S&P 500 closes below 5717 there won’t be a top-warning in my system. Wall Street is watching the same thing I am – the Index pulled back when the Bollinger Bands became overbought around noon.

This doesn’t have to be a major top. Since we have seen good breadth at tops recently, this does not look like a major top. I expect a 3-5% normal retreat.
 
If the S&P 500 closes below 5717 today, perhaps the index will continue higher. For me, I am selling SSO since I suspect the close today might be “close enough.” I don’t like holding leveraged positions when a pullback of any amount is anticipated or suggested.
 
Short-term trading is impossible, they say, so who knows if this will work out. I do know that it is never wrong to take profits.