“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“Mr. Galston [“Why Much of America Soured on Israel” (WSJ-Politics & Ideas, Aug. 12)] presents several statistics indicating decreased support among Americans for Israel and places blame on the shoulders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Yet extreme antipathy for Israel is nothing new. A 2003 poll conducted for the European Commission found that 59% of surveyed citizens viewed the world’s only Jewish state as a “threat to world peace.” Not surprisingly, the U.S. placed second (tied with Iran and North Korea). The gulf between perception and reality then and now can’t be blamed on Mr. Netanyahu, nor TikTok or social media, which did not yet exist.
The reason for the overwhelming negative view of the Jews and the Jewish state is, as it has always been, portrayal.” - Eli Litman. Letters to the Editor, WSJ. From…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/disenchantment-with-israel-began-long-ago-1f91f2c5?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos12
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are matching the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at…
https://ir.eia.gov/secure/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf?Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9pci5laWEuZ292L3NlY3VyZS93cHNyLyoiLCJDb25kaXRpb24iOnsiRGF0ZUxlc3NUaGFuIjp7IkFXUzpFcG9jaFRpbWUiOjE3ODc3NTA0MDB9LCJEYXRlR3JlYXRlclRoYW4iOnsiQVdTOkVwb2NoVGltZSI6MTc4NzE0OTgwMH19fV19&Signature=Auu3FcwcRJU56tig5rE4EC4iP~MKN3wS1G7eJQ98ys6xI1HfpaFkcKXR~Mi8gs~l-sx8r0i1aC-ynV5OOvdBjjyJDVTPhitMZ1YDBl9t4P4cxw0uaeVfMfGxi4nhUdIyjL45LhYfcyIA~eV~phmMgIuiYQCJYR20r9DgWVbBs2os4b~368jjEdafQhEEt5B~FvQfGsLwqysvdeCQjPXMEbIeOC0x2KuqTzSBdVxayQyH2ss689X2QOiUYgYMfmUW2LXU7uA6AMtiDRwJDkBzZYEfu52GSRfZmUUI4ILyY4-xs27sQtPxJWzKJJqXCRZeVWynJCI0BManBtgnToLSMw&Key-Pair-Id=K26E8B9QMJ2WHX
“The Treasury Department said Wednesday it will at least double the level of government debt buybacks in the next few months, targeting the sensitive longer-duration segment of the market. Yields tumbled following the announcement and stock market futures surged.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html
My cmt: It is always a difficult proposition to claim that a specific event propelled the stock market. This time I think the pundits are correct. Bond yields fell; the markets went up.
“Many participants assessed that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline,” stated the summary of the meeting, held July 28-29. “Some participants commented that financial conditions might not currently be sufficiently restrictive to facilitate a return of inflation to 2 percent.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html
My cmt: Odds are 1 in 3 of a hike in September per CME Group FedWatch at…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 7708.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.02.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.641% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +1 to +5 (5 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
I’m neutral, but hoping markets will improve.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
