“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“Thirty-five former federal judges are fighting to preserve sanctions against President Donald Trump's legal team over what a federal court found was a "collusive" IRS lawsuit used to funnel $1.776 billion in taxpayer money to his allies.
U.S. District Judge Kathleen Williams, an Obama appointee in Miami, issued a 56-page ruling on July 13 finding that Trump had acted in "bad faith" and filed the lawsuit for an "improper purpose." She sanctioned his attorneys and barred all parties from ever citing the deal as a legitimate settlement in any official proceeding….
"Plaintiffs acted in bad faith and for an improper purpose by 'collusively filing a lawsuit with claims subject to multiple dispositive defenses solely to provide cover for a collusive settlement,'" the judges wrote, citing Williams' ruling…
…The deal that followed established a $1.776 billion fund for Trump's allies and shielded Trump, his sons, and the Trump Organization from future IRS tax audits.” Story at…
Trump scheme at risk as 35 ex-federal judges intervene over 'collusive' conduct
My cmt: Reports are that the fund has been scrapped. Trump still supports it and may try to bring it back next year.
“The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to a two-year low in July, consistent with a stable labor market…worker productivity grew faster than expected in the second quarter, curbing gains in labor costs…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended August 1…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/us-weekly-jobless-claims-edge-up-planned-layoffs-decline-july-2026-08-06/
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7710.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.15. (About 20% of the time VIX and S&P 500 move in the same direction; a CNBC pundit suggested recently that VIX is falling due to strong call-buying {a bet that stocks will rise}.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.674% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 19 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +19 to +14 (14 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
- Late-day action remains bearish. I use a variation of the Hayes Smart Money Index for this signal.
- McClellan Oscillator turned bearish.
- Since the Oscillator turned bearish, the Hindenburg Omen is back in play. (The bearish signal remains for 30-days as long as the Oscillator is positive.
- New high data has weakened.
I’m bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
