“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
MORE STOLEN ELECTION RANTING
Since Trump continues to claim the 2020 election was stolen here’s a little more of my election ranting….
“One week after President Donald Trump sent FBI agents to seize Fulton County’s 2020 ballots as part of a criminal probe, a Georgia judge has apparently had it up to here with Trump-style election deniers. “The 2020 election is over,” said Fulton County Superior Court Judge Robert McBurney, dismissing Trump-supporters’ lawsuit and effort to review ballots and materials they allege would prove Trump should have won Georgia. On top of tossing the suit, the judge ordered the four plaintiffs — consisting of a treasure hunter and members of a Georgia affiliate of the Tea Party Patriots — to pay nearly $40,000 to Fulton County and the county Superior Court clerk’s office for filing the frivolous suit.” Story at…
Judge throws out MAGA election lawsuit and imposes steep fine
My cmt: Trump continues his “stolen election” lies. I posted commentary a few weeks ago here…
WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE AGREE WITH TRUMP THAT THE 2020 ELECTION WAS STOLEN? See...
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2026/07/momentum-trading-dow-stocks-etfs-stock_01290379102.html
Then there’s 2000 Mules movie.
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week [June 2024] it was quietly retracted. Salem Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary, ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc. (‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV, including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ Editorial staff at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/2000-mules-salem-media-lawsuit-mark-andrews-dinesh-dsouza-2020-election-true-the-vote-1565ace0
“A conservative group has told a Georgia judge that it
doesn't have evidence to support its claims of illegal ballot stuffing during
the 2020 general election and a runoff two months later. Texas-based True the
Vote filed complaints with Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in
2021, including one in which it said it had obtained “a detailed account of
coordinated efforts to collect and deposit ballots in drop boxes across metro
Atlanta” during the November 2020 election and a January 2021 runoff.” Story
at...
Conservative group tells judge it has no evidence to back its claims of Georgia ballot stuffing (msn.com)
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake. The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation) stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The movie creators were sued by one of the individuals they claimed was stuffing ballots - they settled out of Court for a “significant” amount as reported by NPR. The crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot signatures to registrations and signatures on file. Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or non-matching signatures.
“About one-third of U.S. adults say they believe President Biden was
not legitimately elected president of the United States in 2020, according a
poll released this week [Jan 2024].” - The Hill at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4384619-one-third-of-americans-say-biden-election-illegitimate/
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now 30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together. 50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and
realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
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THE STOCK MARKET IS DOING SOMETHING OBSERVED ONLY ONCE
BEFORE. HISTORY IS CLEAR ABOUT WHAT COMES NEXT (Motley Fool)
Now, this doesn't necessarily mean a market crash is around the corner. After all, 40 is not a magic number that automatically triggers a bear market. But when the CAPE ratio is this high, it suggests that stocks are unusually richly valued -- and investors may want to exercise caution.” Commentary at…
The stock market is doing something observed only once before. History is clear about what comes next.
FACTSET EARNINGS INSIGHT (FACTSET – 7 August 2026)
“At this late stage of the earnings season, the (blended) revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 is 15.0%. If 15.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 (16.1%)…
…All eleven sectors are reporting (or have reported) year-over-year revenue growth. Five of these eleven sectors are reporting (or have reported) double-digit revenue growth led by the Energy, Information Technology, and Communication Services sectors.
…At this late stage of the Q2 earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting impressive results, even if one excludes the unusually large EPS surprises reported by Alphabet and Amazon.com. Overall, both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the second quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. In addition, the index is also reporting its highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate since Q2 2021.” Report at…
https://www.factset.com > earningsinsight
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“In spite of natural disasters and some economic uncertainty, small business owners across the nation are in a slightly upbeat mood about conditions ahead, according to today’s release of the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which increased 2.4 points in July to 99.8. A reading above its 52-year average of 98.0 and marking the highest level since August 2025.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/optimism-index-u-s-news-ranking-show-the-power-of-good-policies/
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7728.
-VIX declined about 1% to 15.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.694% (compared to about this time prior market day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
Tuesday, there was another New Hindenburg Omen. “The
Hindenburg Omen is triggered when specific market conditions, such as a large
number of stocks making both new 52-week highs and lows, occur within a short
time frame.” – Investopedia.
As previously noted, Hindenburg Omens don’t have a great
record of being correct; however, they do tend to give a good signal if there
is a cluster of Omens. We’ve now seen 3 in the last 4 trading-session, and the 4
in the last 2 weeks. The Short-term Fosback High/Low Logic Index uses a similar
methodology and it issued a sell signal Tuesday as well.
This may be signaling a retreat back to the lower
trendline or it may be just a fake out. Tomorrow, we get the CPI for July and
that can cause markets to be unsettled. Of course, the conflict in Iran also provides
more confusion as traders try to guess the direction of oil prices.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m cautiously bullish, but I may have to slip to a neutral (or worse) call if indicators continue down. Watching the CPI announcement Wednesday.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket
of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful
when it diverges from the Index.)
My invested position is about 60%
stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a
normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock
allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks
is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
APOLOGY FOR ‘2000 MULES (WSJ)
“The movie “2000 Mules” was supposed to be the definitive proof that Democrats stole the 2020 election from President Trump. Last week [June 2024] it was quietly retracted. Salem Media Group, which co-produced this Trumpian fantasy mockumentary, ceased distribution of the film and issued an apology to Mark Andrews, one of the Georgia voters depicted as an illegal ballot “mule.”... Salem aims to shift blame to the film’s purported vote-fraud-fighting heroes. “We relied on representations made to us by Dinesh D’Souza and True the Vote, Inc. (‘TTV’) that the individuals depicted in the videos provided to us by TTV, including Mr. Andrews, illegally deposited ballots,” the company said. “We have learned that the Georgia Bureau of Investigation has cleared Mr. Andrews of illegal voting activity in connection with the event depicted.” – WSJ Editorial staff at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/2000-mules-salem-media-lawsuit-mark-andrews-dinesh-dsouza-2020-election-true-the-vote-1565ace0
Conservative group tells judge it has no evidence to back its claims of Georgia ballot stuffing (msn.com)
My cmt: The movie, “2000 Mules” is a complete fake. The GBI (Georgia Bureau of Investigation) stated that the claims of ballot stuffing by True the Vote and the 2000 Mules movie were not supported by the evidence provided in the movie. The movie creators were sued by one of the individuals they claimed was stuffing ballots - they settled out of Court for a “significant” amount as reported by NPR. The crazy thing is that during the 2020 election, Georgia matched absentee ballot signatures to registrations and signatures on file. Even if there had been ballot stuffing, the fake ballots would have been thrown out due to lack of registration and/or non-matching signatures.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4384619-one-third-of-americans-say-biden-election-illegitimate/
My cmt: 20% of Americans are complete idiots for believing there is a Government/Taylor Swift conspiracy to elect Joe Biden. Now 30% believe the Trump stolen election absurdity. Let’s hope the 20% crazies fall within the 30% nut-jobs otherwise we’d have to add them together. 50% of Americans can’t be idiots, can they?
Now, this doesn't necessarily mean a market crash is around the corner. After all, 40 is not a magic number that automatically triggers a bear market. But when the CAPE ratio is this high, it suggests that stocks are unusually richly valued -- and investors may want to exercise caution.” Commentary at…
The stock market is doing something observed only once before. History is clear about what comes next.
“At this late stage of the earnings season, the (blended) revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q2 is 15.0%. If 15.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 (16.1%)…
…All eleven sectors are reporting (or have reported) year-over-year revenue growth. Five of these eleven sectors are reporting (or have reported) double-digit revenue growth led by the Energy, Information Technology, and Communication Services sectors.
…At this late stage of the Q2 earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting impressive results, even if one excludes the unusually large EPS surprises reported by Alphabet and Amazon.com. Overall, both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the second quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. In addition, the index is also reporting its highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate since Q2 2021.” Report at…
https://www.factset.com > earningsinsight
“In spite of natural disasters and some economic uncertainty, small business owners across the nation are in a slightly upbeat mood about conditions ahead, according to today’s release of the monthly NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which increased 2.4 points in July to 99.8. A reading above its 52-year average of 98.0 and marking the highest level since August 2025.” Report at…
https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/optimism-index-u-s-news-ranking-show-the-power-of-good-policies/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 7728.
-VIX declined about 1% to 15.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.694% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +9 to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
I’m cautiously bullish, but I may have to slip to a neutral (or worse) call if indicators continue down. Watching the CPI announcement Wednesday.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
