“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“According to a report Monday by Task & Purpose, which cited an update to the Defense Casualty Analysis System, nine Marines and 29 sailors were wounded in the month of September in “overseas operations,” as part of their support of the Iran War… The report added that, in total, 443 service members had been wounded in action between July 7 and the report on September 23, with 417 wounded during the period known as Operation Epic Fury. All 860 of those wounded, the report said, came as due to “hostile action.” Story at…
The US military never announced that an Iranian cruise missile had struck a ship with American marines aboard it
My cmt: These numbers are already higher than the US incurred during the Persian Gulf War from 1990-1991; and we had troops on the ground during the 1st Gulf War. This is just another sign that Hegseth/Trump didn’t have a clue when they attacked Iran. Apparently, US drone defense hasn’t caught up with drone capabilities. That should have been obvious. The WSJ reported that “Ukrainian drone operators have repeatedly trounced North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops, including Americans, in military exercises.” (WSJ – “Inside Ukraine’s Drone Mission Control Room”, Saturday/Sunday Sept 26-27). Given that we lacked effective and sufficient drone defense, the attack on Iran was ill timed and reckless.
Regarding the reporting, reporters are nit-wits: it is not normal to tell the enemy how effective their strikes have been.
“Gulf oil producers, with considerable support from the US Navy, are jamming crude through the Strait of Hormuz, right under Iran’s nose.
Oil and petroleum product flows through the critical chokepoint averaged 13.1 million barrels per day last week, according to Kpler, a marine data tracking service. That’s just under 80% of the 17.1 million barrels that had traveled through the strait each day before the war broke out.” Story at…
Iran has lost considerable leverage in the Strait of Hormuz. It can't go on like this forever
“The sell-off in US Treasurys picked up steam on Monday as traders took in the latest developments in the US-Iran war and a fresh surge in oil prices. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points to 5.26%, a level fixed income investors haven't seen since 2002…The move attests to investors' worries about inflation and appeared to be fueled by President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal for a ceasefire and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
… Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said it looked like yields would remain elevated for the near-term, even if oil prices were lower...
"We have an imbalance in longer-term demand for bonds and longer-term supply of bonds," he said, speaking to CNBC on Monday. "We're not going back to 4%, 4.50%, 4.25%, simply because there's too much of an imbalance in the supply and demand." Story at…
Why the historic US bond sell-off is getting even worse
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 6.7 points to 81.9 (1985=100) in September, down from 88.6 in August… “The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board… Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024. Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory. Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken. Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months.” Report at…
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 7671.
-VIX declined about 0.2% to 16.04.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped slightly to 5.234% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained -12 (12 more Bear indicator than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
I’m cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
