Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Housing Starts … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
"I'll be honest. I don't think the president could spell AI if I gave him the first letter." - Rep. Stephen Lynch during Treasury Secretary Bessent’s Congressional testimony.
 
WSJ LETTERS TO EDITOR:
PARTIES CHOOSING PANDERING OVER PRUDENCE (WSJ)
“Regarding your editorial “Trump Has a $5,000 Bridge to Sell You” (Sept. 11): The absurdity of President Trump’s promise of a $5,000 “dividend” for every U.S. adult citizen if Republicans hold Congress in November pales in comparison to the Democrats’ more costly and far more cynical proposals.
Independent analyses estimate the cost to the federal government of “Medicare for All” would be between $25 trillion and $35 trillion over 10 years. Free undergraduate education, expanded student-loan forgiveness, free day care and more generous food stamp and housing voucher transfer payments would add trillions more in fiscal folly to a national debt that has crossed the $40 trillion threshold.
The bridges that Democratic candidates are selling involve the creation of new bureaucracies or the expansion of existing ones. Unlike one-time payments, the “free” programs that Democrats advocate will last as long as the war on poverty, if not forever.” - Steven Sarfatti
 
“In addition to our $1.9 trillion annual deficit, piled onto $40 trillion in debt, the leader of the Republican Party offers a $1.2 trillion bribe to keep his party in office. Let that sink in for a minute. The only political party that represents fiscal conservatism is fine drowning us in debt. This is why so many thoughtful Americans are now independents, and why many of us are working hard to normalize independent candidates. If we don’t, we see no hope that our nation will avoid a debilitating financial crisis.” - Mike Collier
WSJ letters at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/both-parties-choose-pandering-over-prudence-51396877?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9
 
PHILLY FED INDEX (Seeking Alpha)
“The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to 37.8 in September 2026 from 47.4 in August, remaining strong and beating the market consensus of around 31.3.” Story at…
https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:267a91696094b:0-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-falls-less-than-expected-in-september/
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (ABC News)
“The number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped sharply last week, another sign that layoffs remain rare and most Americans enjoy job security. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims slid to 196,000, the fewest since mid-July and down from 206,000 the week before.” Story at…
https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/claims-unemployment-benefits-drop-196000-lowest-mid-july-136524400
 
HOUSING STARTS (Reuters)
“US single-family homebuilding increased in August, but a drop in permits for future construction suggested the improvement was likely temporary as rising inflation because of the war ​in the Middle East boosts mortgage rates. Single-family housing starts, which account for ‌the bulk of homebuilding, jumped 7.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 918,000 units last month…” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-single-family-housing-starts-rebound-august-building-permits-fall-2026-09-17/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 7638.
-VIX declined about 13% to 15.44.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.939% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 19 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -15 to -14 (14 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.
 
The S&P 500 closed 0.3% above its 50-dMA.
 
The Index is only 2.1% below its all-time high.
 
Thursday was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
The market has been concerned with the unknown of Fed rate hikes. Even though the hike was well anticipated, the market hates unknowns. The bad news (rate hike) is now in the past. My guess is that markets go higher, perhaps after a brief pause. From here I want to see how markets react. I’d like to see indicators improve, too, so I’ll watch in the near term.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.