“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
ATLANTIC RECORD FOR NO HURRICANES (AccuWeather)
“The Atlantic hurricane season has set a satellite-era record with no hurricanes [so far this season]… El Niño, disruptive wind shear, dry air and Saharan dust have all helped limit the number of Atlantic tropical storms and prevented any from becoming hurricanes so far this season.” Story at,,,
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic-sets-no-hurricane-record-florida-development-zone-watched/1933538
My Cmt: Funny, when there are a lot of Atlantic Basin hurricanes it’s caused by Global Warming. When the numbers are low, there’s no mention of Global Cooling. There are hints that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may be shifting to a cool phase. If it does, that will depress future Atlantic hurricane activity. The climate alarmists will hate that. The AMO has been in a warm phase since 1995.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20U.S.%20greenhouse%20gas,above%201990%20levels%20in%202007
“Regarding your editorial “Democrats Really Want 13 Justices” (Sept. 5): As someone who has been a lawyer since the 1970s and a liberal since the 1960s (I was a reasonably alert high-school student), I have to agree with the editorial board on this one.
Anyone who takes constitutional law will read opinions of the U.S. Supreme Court spanning its history and will notice a few things: that justices sometimes change their thinking about issues over the course of their terms on the court, that presidents come and go, as do justices, and that the “liberal-conservative” balance on the court changes. We are currently in a dominantly “conservative” period, but that is likely to change as the current justices age out and as the mood of the public shifts and along with it the party affiliation of the White House’s occupant. And, besides, it was the “Nixon court” that gave the country Roe v. Wade in 1973, with a Nixon appointee writing the opinion.” - Gary Roberts. WSJ Letters to Editor at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/court-packing-is-misguided-and-overlooks-legal-history-307e3ce1?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos4
“In late August came a report from the independent AI research organization METR on the Hugging Face incident. OpenAI was running advanced systems through a security test when its AI agents went rogue. Over several weeks and without being told to, they secretly organized, broke out into the open internet, and hacked into Hugging Face, a major AI-development platform. Roughly 1,200 agents worked in what they called a “collective,” deliberately evaded detection, created their own message board, and exchanged 70,000 communications. Some agents sacrificed themselves for the mission.
They cooperated, created a strategy no one designed them for, picked their own target, moved on their own initiative. None of this was supposed to be possible. It was a warning shot, an alarm bell…
…He [Paul Christiano, a top AI safety expert] said: “I now believe there is a meaningful risk that rapid acceleration in AI capabilities leads to catastrophic and irreversible loss of control in the very near term. I do not think that the AI industry in general, including OpenAI, is currently on track to reduce this risk to an acceptable level.”
…almost all AI professionals fear a disaster is going to happen. Ones I’ve spoken to since Hugging Face have left the subject of mass job loss and are on to catastrophe. They fear bioterrorism and a mass-casualty event—a modern Ted Kaczynski who’ll send not bombs but a plague. They fear utilities and infrastructure being hacked and dismantled. They fear an AI agent rousing an AI army to take down the American banking system…
…When something is speeding up and going out of control, prudence, care and deliberation aren’t alarmist, they’re necessary. Stop, think. The stakes are high, couldn’t be higher.” -
Peggy Noonan, WSJ columnist. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/pause-ai-for-humanitys-sake-8839ca5e?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
My cmt: It has been several years since I read an account of an AI program that re-wrote its code so it couldn’t be turned off. Imagine if your Microsoft program re-wrote itself so that “Quit” no longer worked. Today, AI programs are much more frightening. Without direction, one program got hold of money and bought its engineer a robot. We now see calls coming from AI CEOs to slow AI development. Anyone who doesn’t see the risk must be an idiot. Right Donald?
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7620.
-VIX rose about 7% to 16.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.998% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -17 to -16 (16 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), still a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.
There are too many to list, but Breadth is the most worrisome.
-Breadth remains weak. This important condition for a correction has been met; over the last 10, 50 and 100-days, more than 50% of issues on the NYSE have declined. This doesn’t mean a correction is guaranteed.
I remain neutral, but concerned.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
