Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
ELECTION DAY
TG! Now we won’t have to listen to the incessant liars on TV every 10 minutes claiming their political opponent is a crook. It’s on to Medicare open season. Jeez… We’ll be bombarded by a new set of liars.
 
JUDGE REJECTS CLAIM AGAINST EX-FBI STAFF(WSJ)
“A federal judge threw out charges against two former FBI officials accused of lying to Congress about their involvement in the Hunter Biden investigation, excoriating the Justice Department’s case as a “slapdash job” that created political theater ahead of the midterm election.
“I am deeply troubled,” said U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia Faruqui in Washington. “What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponization.”
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/judge-rejects-charges-that-ex-fbi-officials-lied-about-hunter-biden-probe-dcb5d510
My cmt: The judge was also troubled by the timing of the streamlined complaint immediately before the election.
 
VOTERS WANT CHANGE NOT EXTREMES (WSJ – Excerpt)
“Elections are the closest thing to a civic sacrament in a secular, democratic state. They represent the solemn occasion when the essential idea of democracy gets practical expression: the demos, the people, taking literal charge of the kratos, the government… We have done our best in recent years to erode the sacral aspect of this ceremony. In keeping with the solipsistic nature of modern social life and the primacy of personal convenience, we no longer come together to vote on the same day… We can survive the degradation of the symbolic national unity of voting. I’m doubtful we can survive the systematic undermining of the practical political unity elections are supposed to induce…
…If the Democrats do win on Tuesday, I fear that, like a people in the grip of insanity, we are on course to keep doing the same thing and expecting different results… Meanwhile, even if the blue wave is meaningful, the country won’t be that different. Voters will be dissatisfied with high prices and uneasy with the excesses of the president; they won’t be voting to reinvent America’s capitalist system or to overhaul the Constitution.
In a sane world, wise politicians would interpret the results for what they are. Republicans would listen and rethink their party’s trajectory. Democrats would listen and stick narrowly to counterbalancing the administration and holding it accountable.” – Gerard Baker, Editor at Large, WSJ. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/voters-want-change-not-more-lurching-between-extremes-86eac5ab
 
“The person who has had the biggest impact on my life was Harford Steele…Mr. Steele was my high school civics teacher. He showed me what it takes to be a good American.” – John Glenn, Hero, Astronaut, US Senator.
 
“I taught Johnny [John Glenn] and hundreds of others that our democracy is a priceless heritage, and that we should preserve, protect and if at all possible, make some contributions to it.” – Hartford Steele, principal and civics teacher, New Concord, Ohio.
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
"New orders for US factory goods increased more than expected in September, boosted by bookings for aircraft and a ​range of other goods… Factory ‌orders rose 1.8%...” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-factory-orders-beat-expectations-september-amid-broad-strength-2026-11-03/
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7569.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 20.83.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined slightly to 4.906% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026. Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from zero to -6 (6 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, is reversed lower, a BEARISH sign.
 
I was hoping for confirmation of a low Monday, but we didn’t get much of a signal.  A big move higher, say around 1%, would have been a good confirmation. Instead, we did see a move higher, but not one that would suggest that sellers had turned into buyers. Internals were weak today, too; declining-issues outpaced advancing-issues; new-lows far outpaced new-highs; declining-volume was stronger than advancing-volume.
 
Where is the S&P 500?
          - 3.2% below its all-time high
          - 1.6% below its 50-dMA
          - 0.7% below its 100-dMA
          - 3.5% above its 200-dMA
 
As I write this tonight futures are collapsing. It looks like markets are not happy with election projections that Dems will take the House and Senate. We’ll see.
 
Lets’ see what indicators show Wednesday. We could get some buy-signals on a big washout. As of today, indicators aren’t all that bad.
 
BOTTOM LINE
No confirmation; no bottom. I’m back to Bearish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.