“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“The Democrats are projected to win the 2026 national House vote by 13 points. One estimate has them winning 258 seats, their largest majority since 2008.
At this writing, Democrats have picked up seven Senate seats. They may pick up additional seats in Alaska and—this isn’t a misprint—Mississippi. Democrats flipped at least five governorships, in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas. At least 12 state legislative chambers flipped from red to blue…
… Democrats outspent Republicans overall for the second straight election, according to OpenSecrets.org. Two of the Democrats’ favorite bogeymen—the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision and Elon Musk—couldn’t stop the party’s advance…
… Voters said Mr. Trump has the wrong priorities, puts his personal interest above the public interest, and made economic conditions worse. Economic growth and full employment mattered less than inflation and the corresponding decline in real wages…
… Mr. Trump began the finger-pointing on election night when he told the Journal that some Republican candidates “could have been better” and “had a lot of flaws.” He neglected to mention that his hand-selected candidates in Georgia, North Carolina and Texas went down in double-digit defeats. Nor did he name another of his picks, Darline Graham of South Carolina, who lost by 4 points…
… The socialist “Squad” of congressmen aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America is set to double in size. The much larger House Progressive Caucus—currently some 100 members—will grow even more. The line between socialism and progressivism is blurry: Rep. Ilhan Omar is a founding member of the Squad and deputy chairman of the Progressive Caucus.
… Thus conservatives who believe in the Constitution, limited government, the rule of law and the Declaration of Independence’s principles of liberty and equality confront a dire prospect: Nov. 3 may foreshadow a period of progressive governance in both parties that would leave Americans poorer, weaker and less free. It may turn out that the most prescient words of this election were uttered last month in New York City when Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told donors, “Because if you can win, if Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere. Anywhere.”
We are about to find out if she’s right.” - Mathew Continetti for WSJ Opinion’s Free Expression. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-maga-coalition-disintegrates-4179a2be
“Jason L. Riley’s column “The Beginning of Trump’s Long Goodbye” (Upward Mobility, Nov. 4) overlooks a critical factor in the Republican defeat: the party’s failure to communicate a positive, persuasive message.
Having worked in advertising and marketing, I watched the Republican campaign with disbelief. Successful marketing demonstrates benefits, establishes credibility and gives audiences reasons to believe. Instead, Republican messaging relied heavily on hostility, accusations and personal attacks.
In a May interview with Politico, Republican strategist James Blair laid out the game plan: “Attack, attack, attack. And when in doubt, attack some more… The best defense is a great offense.” I would have rejected that strategy outright.
Where were the messages demonstrating how Republican policies improved Americans’ everyday lives? Where were the accomplishments voters could recognize and appreciate? Political persuasion is earned through credibility and demonstrated value, not resentment.
Republicans had extraordinary financial resources. What they lacked was a compelling, positive message. - Lyn Stanley. WSJ Letters at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-factors-behind-the-great-republican-rout-3d15819c?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos7
My cmt: I couldn’t agree more. As the chart below shows, most of the current high prices are from the Biden administration. At the current 3.7% (including food and energy) prices double every 19.5-years. At the 9% inflation peak under Biden, prices double every 8-years.
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 2.4% to 7550.
-VIX declined about 22% to 19.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.884% (compared to about this time most recent trading day).
NVDA – Reduced position 10/7/2021
XLK – Added 6/5/2026.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -10 to -5 (5 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations, moved higher, a BULLISH sign.
- 3.4% below its all-time high
- 1.6% below its 50-dMA
- 0.9% below its 100-dMA
- 3% above its 200-dMA
I’ll upgrade to a NEUTRAL, but cautious position on the market. I am still fully invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
