“The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, pushing the average over the past month to the lowest level in eight years…Jobless claims declined by 1,000 to 287,000 in the week ended Oct. 4…’We’ve had a good start to employment growth in the first nine months of this year, and there’s absolutely no indication that this trend is breaking heading into October,’ said Guy Berger, U.S. economist at RBS Securities Inc.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-09/jobless-claims-in-u-s-fall-pushing-average-to-eight-year-low.html
RECESSION WATCH
The Port of Hampton Roads reopened a major terminal in Portsmouth and stated: "Sustained growth in our container business necessitates PMT's return to service and is a sign of health for the Port of Virginia," said John Reinhart, CEO and executive director of the Port Authority, in a statement.” – Virginian Pilot at…
http://hamptonroads.com/2014/09/portsmouth-marine-terminal-reopen-monday
NORTH AMERICAN CONTAINER VOLUMNES RISE (JOC Group)
“North American ports handled 20.9 million TEUs in the
first half of 2014, 4.1 percent higher than 2013 first-half totals.” Story at…
http://www.joc.com/container-volumes-rise-north-american-ports_20140828.htmlNo hint of recession here!
CORRECTION
I have been proven wrong in my belief that the pullback was over. The S&P 500 broke its lower trend line and retested the 1935 low on 7 October. Unfortunately, today’s-lower low of 1928 was on higher volume (indicating more selling) and deteriorating market internals suggest more selling to come.
Russell 2000 (which had been the leader in this downturn) closed at a
lower low of 1095 Tuesday, Oct 7, on half the volume of the previous low
Wednesday, Oct 1. This was interpreted
by many as a bottom and I think that is why there was so much buying on
Wednesday. Obviously, the rally didn’t hold.
S&P 500 closed 1% above its 200-dMA and 4.1% below its recent high. As
bad as it seems, the S&P 500 isn’t down much.
Today’s action makes it clear that the markets have not yet confirmed a
bottom. They could test today’s low and
move up from this point later, but it looks more likely the markets have moved
into correction mode and my guess would be for lower moves ahead. Real
corrections last about 2-months from top to bottom and that could give another
month of pain. One CNBC trader said, “Sell any rally for 2-weeks.”
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P 500 was down 2% to 1928 (rounded). VIX was UP about 24% to 18.76.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose slightly to 2.33%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) fell to 45% at the close Thursday.
(A number below 50% is usually bad news for the markets.) New-lows outpaced New-highs Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-207. (It was -241 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread fell to -3. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 3 each day.
Internals remained neutral.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM long term indicator is HOLD. The VIX indicator switched to sell. It wouldn’t take much more selling to give a sell signal for the longterm indicator.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
50% is Fully invested for me since I am
semi-retired. --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ENSCO’s chart doesn’t look good now since it has fallen below prior lows as the oil drillers have not performed well. On the plus side, dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is somewhat limited.
Wait for a bottom call. I will sell Ensco if it drops much further. I married this stock and that is always a mistake. The divorce will be messy. That probably means it is near a bottom.
ENSCO ANALYSIS (Seeking Alpha)
“From the comparison of the fleet status report of July to the report of September, a remarkable outcome is that Ensco has hardly felt any effect of reduced rates on its jackups…the decline in the day rates charged by offshore drillers will only prove temporary…we can conclude that only 33% (55% of 60%) of the total revenue of Ensco [from its floating fleet] is at risk of being reduced by the lower day rates…The…analysis of Ensco indicates that its current price represents a great investing opportunity. Cyclical stocks that are well positioned and have an excellent record carry the potential to provide great profits when the sector turns around. A realistic price target for Ensco within the next 12-24 months is a return back to its recent trading level of $55, implying an upside of almost 50%.” Story at…
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2549365-ensco-plc-a-thorough-analysis?uprof=44&dr=1
