“There were 4.8 million job openings on the last business day of August, up from 4.6 million in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today…This was the highest level of job openings since January 2001. The number of job openings increased for total private and was little changed for government in August.’ Full press release at…
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.htm
CORRECTION NOTE
Today the S&P 500 again tested the prior low of 1941 settling slightly below that value and finishing the day at 1937. Last week the successful test on the day after the low didn’t hold and today the Index retested the low. The NYSE volume was slightly lower today, Tuesday, when compared to its prior lows and that indicates simply that there was slightly less selling pressure. This is a positive development and suggests a possible bottom. The Index is once again near its lower trend line (slightly below) and unless it decisively breaks it, the market can advance from here. Internals were somewhat improved too. It still looks like the correction is over (as I stated last week), but there is no smoking gun. There have been downturns that stopped with these stats and others that didn’t. On a positive note, the S&P 500 is only 3.8% below the all-time high.
There is always a possibility that the S&P 500 volume could be much lower than today’s NYSE volume and that would give more confidence that the correction is over. I don’t get that data till late tonight. At this point, I’ll have to see if the apparent successful test today holds up tomorrow. If not, I’ll be watching the long term NTSM indicators as they are starting to look bearish.
STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT DAY TUESDAY – SUGGESTS AN UP
DAY TOMORROW
Tuesday was statistically-significant in my system. The just means the size of today’s move was
higher than the recent normal as measured by standard deviation from the
norm. That implies Wednesday will be an
up-day about 62% of the time.
LATE DAY SELLING
There was late day selling today (when the Pros trade),
but the Tick improved into the close suggesting the selling was slowing
significantly.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down 1.5% to 1935 (rounded). VIX was up about 11% to 17.20.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell slightly to 2.34% indicating some serious flight to safety.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) dropped to 44% at the close Tuesday. (A number below 50% is usually bad news for the markets.) New-lows outpaced New-highs Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-149. (It was -32 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread fell to -3. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 3 each day.
Internals remained neutral, but the 10-dMA was better than at the prior low. That’s a good sign.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Tuesday, the NTSM long term indicator is HOLD
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50% invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ENSCO’s chart doesn’t look good now since it has fallen below prior lows as the oil drillers have not performed well. On the plus side, dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is somewhat limited.
I will sell Ensco if it drops much further. I married this stock and that is always a mistake. The divorce will be messy. That probably means it is near a bottom.
