“The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index increased 0.8% in September after reporting no change (from +0.2%) in August… Leading Indicators Index points toward a generally improving economy.” Story at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/leader.htm
CORRECTION OVER
Today the S&P 500 closed above the upper channel line of the descending channel on 2-consecutive days. I conclude that it has broken its downtrend and is now in an uptrend, at least when using standard rules that have generally worked in the past. There is other evidence too, especially when charting up-volume.
In the chart below there are 2-key points: (1) the smoothed 10-dMA of up-volume has broken sharply upward and (2) the downtrend in up-volume that has persisted since April 2014 is clearly over. That’s the sort of evidence that confirms the downtrend is over. My guess is that the S&P 500 will continue up at least thru December.
Not everyone agrees. Carter
Worth, chief
market technician at Sterne Agee, said on CNBC that he thinks the Markets must
retrace down to test the prior low of 1862 on the S&P 500. It could be, but it looks to me like a lot of
people want to be in the market now and are buying the dip. On the chart above you can see the same sort
of pattern back in July when the market went straight up to the old high. I will be vigilant as the markets get close to old highs - if they can't break higher, Carter Worth may be proven right.RSI
RSI is 50 and that is not overbought.
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.7% to 1965 (rounded).
VIX was down about 2.5% to 16.11.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained 2.27%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 60% at the close Friday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +57. (It was +78 Thursday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +46. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 46 each day. Internals remained positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis is HOLD on the market. VIX is still too high to swing the NTSM system to Buy, but not by much. I called a BUY on 17 October based on Technical analysis.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on Friday, 17
October 2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more Monday, 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%.
This move was based on my comments 16 Oct that a Tradable bottom had been
set. It appears that this will be a
durable bottom and not just a trade.
Either way, since I am semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
