“A surprisingly powerful surge in hiring pushed
unemployment to a six-year low of 5.9 percent in September as the U.S. labor
market showed renewed vigor. The 248,000 gain in payrolls last month followed a
180,000 increase in August that was bigger than previously estimated, the Labor
Department reported in Washington.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-03/jobless-rate-in-u-s-falls-to-5-9-in-september-payrolls-jump.htmlISM SERVICES DOWN SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL EXPANDING (MarketWatch)
“U.S. services and other nonmanufacturing companies reported slower growth for September, after hitting its highest level since 2008 in August, according to a survey of senior executives released Friday. The Institute for Supply Management said its gauge of nonmanufacturers fell to 58.6% last month from 59.6% in August. The pullback was in line with forecasts…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-services-index-falls-to-586-in-september-2014-10-03-10911744
FED BEHIND THE CURVE; RAISE RATES – BULLARD (Reuters)
“St. Louis Fed President James Bullard pointed out that the economy has exceeded the economic forecasts the Fed presented in September 2012, when the central bank's latest bond buying program - known formally as Quantitative Easing (QE) - was launched. "The policy rate normalization process remains far behind the schedule laid out at the launch of QE3," Bullard said in prepared remarks for a business event here on Thursday.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/03/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSKCN0HS01O20141003
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was up 1.1% to 1968 (rounded).
VIX was down about 10% to 14.55.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose slightly to 2.43%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) rose to 42% at the close Friday.
(A number below 50% is usually bad news for the markets.) New-lows
outpaced New-highs Friday. The spread
(new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-42. (It was -238 Thursday). The 10-day
moving average of change in the spread rose to minus-6. In other words, over
the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 6 each day.
Still, this was an impressive reversal in new-hi/new-lo data
that is unmatched going back to the summer of 2013. 68% of shares were advancing
today and that was exceeded only once over the past month so there is a lot of
sudden optimism often associated with a bottom.
Internals remained negative, but it they are
improving. We’ll
have to watch and see whether the trend will continue.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM long term indicator is HOLD.
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50% invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ENSCO’s chart doesn’t look good now since it has fallen below prior lows as the oil drillers have not performed well. Wait for a bottom call.
