Retail sales increased 0.6% in August following an upwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.0%) in July. The Briefing.com consensus expected retail sales to increase 0.6%.” Story at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/retail.htm
SELLOFF CLOSER TO THE END THAN THE BEGINNING (CNBC)
“The end—of the selloff in stocks—is nigh, BTIG Chief Strategist Dan Greenhaus said Friday. "There has been a noticeable change from yesterday afternoon [Thursday] through this morning [Friday] about how clients are approaching their 'buy' orders," he said. "It seems like the seriousness, the aggressiveness with which those 'buy' orders are being placed has picked up recently." Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102078405?trknav=homestack:topnews:6
PRO: RALLY FOLLOWED BY 10% DOWN BEFORE CORRECTION IS OVER (CNBC)
“After three rough weeks on Wall Street, the stock market could lose another 10 percent from current levels before rocketing higher--at least if technicals are any indicator, a stock market observer told CNBC on Monday. Last week, the S&P 500 index fell to ‘some pretty critical levels,’ including the 200-day moving average and reactionary low of 1,904, Jeffrey Saut, managing director at Raymond James, said on ‘Squawk Box.’ But the index was ‘very oversold on a short term basis.’ he added. ‘It's a logical place to try and rally here. I think it's a bull trap,’ Saut said. ‘I think we get a rally attempt here, but I think eventually stocks go lower, but it should be viewed within the context of a secular bull market that has eight to 10 years left in it.’" Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102082063
STOCKS ABOVE THEIR 200-dMA
Chart from…The above chart shows that 30% of stocks on the NYSE are below their 200-dMA. As of Friday, collectively, the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 were ABOVE their 200-dMA. I suspect the S&P 500 has not reached bottom, and to some extent, will tend to catch up to the rest of the stocks at the NYSE by falling.
SEARCH ITEM STOCK MARKET CORRECTION
Do Google searches predict a major top? Hard to say.
Google Data from...https://support.google.com/trends/answer/4355164?hl=en&rd=1
“The numbers on the graph reflect how many searches have been done for a particular term, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. They don't represent absolute search volume numbers, because the data is normalized and presented on a scale from 0-100. Each point on the graph is divided by the highest point and multiplied by 100. When we don't have enough data, 0 is shown.”
MARKET REPORT
Monday, the S&P 500 was down 1.7% to 1875 (rounded).
VIX was UP about 16% to 24.64.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.29%.
The S&P 500 closed down hard late in the day after a choppy up and down day. The markets had shown some signs of a turnaround earlier, but the close sealed the deal and there was little positive to show. Even the Russell 2000 (that had been up significantly) closed down 0.4% on the day. Still, it was a big down day (statistically significant) and those days are often followed by an up day. I would not be surprised to see some buyers step in tomorrow.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 39% at the close Monday. (A number below 50% is usually bad news for the markets.) New-lows outpaced New-highs Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-409. (It was -404Thursday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread fell to -28. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 28 each day.
Internals are negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM long term
indicator flashed Sell again. The VIX
indicator and Volume are SELL while Sentiment remains high.
As I wrote Friday, I waited
to see how the markets reacted Monday morning and didn’t sell. I may regret that, but an up-day is expected
for tomorrow due to today’s large down move.
Unless there are some legitimate turn-around signs, I’ll be out tomorrow
for sure. Since I must move 401k money
before noon, I’ll post my decision in the AM.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
50% is Fully invested for me since I am
semi-retired. --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD
I married this stock and that is always a mistake. The divorce will be messy. That probably means it is near a bottom.
