http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/10/hillary-clinton-dont-let-anyone-tell.html
What????? No further comment needed.
“Orders for durable goods dropped unexpectedly in September, falling for a second month, on waning demand for machinery and computers that signals companies are reluctant to invest in updating equipment.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-28/durable-goods-orders-in-u-s-decrease-for-second-straight-month.html
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE UP (Reuters)
“U.S. consumer confidence rose in October to its highest level since October 2007 as views on the job market improved, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday. The Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes rose to 94.5…” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/28/us-usa-economy-confidence-idUSKBN0IH1FN20141028
CORRECTION NOT OVER? (Financial Sense)
“My technical indicators have improved, but have not yet issued an all-clear signal, suggesting this still may be just a deserved bounce, after an unusual four straight down weeks that had the market short-term oversold, but may not be the end of the correction. The answer one way or the other should not be many days away.” Commentary at…
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/sy-harding/buy-dip-sell-rally
30% CORRECTION (MarketWatch)
“In a commentary for Marketwatch just over two months ago, I predicted that the U.S. stock faced at least a 20% correction. The signals now point to a 30% downturn…The declines that corrected prices more than 10% in both the Russell 2000 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index encompassed the majority of the market, and these stocks have begun their descent. Meanwhile, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average containing 30 stocks, and the S&P 500 have yet to correct 10%, but historically they are the last to fall…The bear market is here, and a 30% decline is highly probable. So be defensive, raise your awareness, and get help from professionals…” Commentary at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-why-you-should-expect-a-30-market-meltdown-2014-10-27
Maybe, but Market Internals look pretty good and VIX has been falling so it would appear that most market participants don’t agree with the above view…at least for the time being.
50-dMA OF THE S&P 500
The 50-dMA of the S&P 500 is 1967 and the S&P 500 closed nearly 1% above the 50-dMA. That’s a good sign. Let’s see if can remain there for another day.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 1.2% to 1985 (rounded).
VIX was down about 10% to 14.39.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose to 2.3%.
I’m watching the charts. The Index needs to make new highs. If not, the index will reflect a head and shoulders pattern or possibly a double top. Both are bearish. Interpreting chart patterns is sometimes complex {and I don’t claim to be a chart guy}, but this time it’s simple. If the market can’t go up, it will go down. (No wonder I don’t get paid for writing this blog!)
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 64% at the close Monday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +154. (It was +57 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +48. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 48 each day. Internals remained positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis is BUY on the market because the 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals are positive. It doesn’t matter at this point, because I called a BUY on 17 October based on Technical analysis.
MY INVESTED STOCK
POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on Friday, 17
October 2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more Monday, 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%.
This move was based on my comments 16 Oct that a Tradable bottom had been
set. It appears that this will be a
durable bottom and not just a trade.
Either way, since I am semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY?
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Discussion on oil prices on CNBC were all over the place Monday, from $80 to $65. It reminds me of 2007 when there were experts on CNBC predicting $10/gallon gas.
