“The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits last week posted the biggest increase in two months, but jobless claims nationwide are still exceedingly low amid an uptick in hiring and relatively few layoffs. Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 290,000 in the seven days ended Nov…” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-12000-to-290000-2014-11-13
JOLTS REPORT
BEARISH CHART PATTERN CALLS FOR SELLOFF (MarketWatch)
“The stock market appears to be heading toward one of those rare occasions, when a record high contributes to a bearish technical pattern, that suggests the biggest selloff of the year could be right around the corner [according to Dan Wantrobski, technical analyst at Janney Capital Markets.] The S&P 500’s seesaw action over the last several months is building what chart watchers call a classic “megaphone,” or a “broadening top” pattern, that reverses the rising trend that preceded it….if the S&P 500 starts turning lower from resistance at the rising trendline, and its trading pattern turns into a legitimate megaphone reversal, ‘then the S&P 500 could experience a decline in excess of 10% from its peak,’ to where the lower trendline is headed.” Story at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bearish-megaphone-pattern-calls-for-stock-market-selloff-2014-11-12?dist=afterbell
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.1% to 2039 (rounded).
VIX was up about 6% to 13.79.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note slipped to 2.35.
PULLBACK COMING
-RSI remains Overbought at a high value of 87.
-The S&P 500 Index remains 3.3% above the 50-dMA. That is a value that usually leads to some selling.
-The percentage of stocks above their 200-dMA was 55% Wednesday and that is below the mean value of 65% and is especially weak since the S&P 500 is at new highs.
-The Index has spent 4-days at either 2038 or 2039. That is a stalled market; perhaps just temporarily.
-Market Internals are deteriorating, but rather slowly. A pullback still looks likely. As always, timing is unknown.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 54% at the close Thursday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +115. (It was +91 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-3. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has declined by 3-each day. Internals remained neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis switched to neutral Thursday. Only Price remains positive. Other indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK
POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October
2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am
semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If not; it’s a dog.
