"Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and
services produced, rose at a 3.9 percent annualized rate, up from an initial
estimate of 3.5 percent…'We probably have more momentum heading into the final
quarter of the year,' said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe
Generale in New York…” Story at…
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Briefing.com)
“The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped
to 88.7 in November from a downwardly revised 94.1 (from 94.5) in October. The
Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 96.0. The sharp
decline in confidence was very unusual. Typically, confidence levels follow
trends in employment, stock prices, and gasoline prices.” Charts and commentary at...http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/conf.htm
THANKSGIVING FORECAST (MarketWatch)
“There’s good news, bullish investors, because the odds are in your favor for the rest of this week and all of next.” – Mark Hulbert. Commentary at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-stock-market-behaves-before-and-after-thanksgiving-2014-11-24
VIX IS ALMOST TOO LOW
VIX has dropped to 12.25. Below 12 has been a trouble point for stocks in 2013 and 2014. This is a counter-intuitive indicator since a falling VIX is generally good for stocks.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2067 (rounded).
VIX was down about 3% to 12.25.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.26 so the Bond Ghouls remain worried.
Advancing issues handily outpaced decliners and Tick was positive so Wednesday is likely to be an up day.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 53% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +163. (It was +138 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +1. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by1-each day. Internals switched to positive on the market since the 10-day change in daily spread is declining.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis switched to BUY Tuesday because VIX has been falling. Both VIX and Price indicators are positive. Others are neutral. The Buy rating is not particularly important now because a BUY call was made on 17 Oct. at the recent bottom.
MY INVESTED STOCK
POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October
2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am
semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If not; it’s a dog.
