“Excluding food and energy, core prices rose 0.4% in October after being unchanged in September. The consensus expected these prices to increase 0.1%...A sharp increase in wholesale and retail margins caused an upward surprise in overall producer prices. Pipeline pressure remain muted and overall price growth should soften.” Details at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/ppi.htm
S&P 500 TURNING POINT: TECHNICAL DISCUSSION (MarketWatch)
“Many of the charts we follow are nearing long-term trend channels, the top of their weekly Bollinger Bands, and upper Fibonacci extension targets we have had for a long time….What this means is that we will need to see a correction begin within the next week, which breaks down below the 1990ES region…Ultimately, the next few weeks will be telling us if the next bigger 300-plus-point move will be on the short side, or the long side into 2015. But one way or another, 2015 will likely be providing us a trade for 300-plus points, with the next few weeks telling us in which direction that larger trade will take us.” Commentary at…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/decision-making-time-for-the-sp-2014-11-17
My cmt: The above article covered Elliott Wave Theory and was quite technical. I am not a waver so I don’t know if the predictions are well founded. If there is a 300 pt. move, I’d guess the move would be down since I have been following market deterioration at the highs. A 300 pt. move would be about 15% and a 15% move seems like a good a guess as any. Time will tell though; markets can turn quickly.
WHY RUSSIA’S SHOWDOWN WITH THE WEST WILL WORSEN (dShort.com)
“I grew up hating America. I lived in the Soviet Union and was a child of the cold war. That hate went away in 1989, though, when the Berlin Wall fell and the cold war ended. By the time I left Russia in 1991, the year the Soviet Union collapsed, America was a country that Russians looked up to and wanted to emulate. Twenty-three years later, a new version of cold war is back, though we Americans haven't realized it yet…As Garry Kasparov put it, while the West is playing chess, responding tactically to each turn of events, Putin is playing high-stakes poker. We ignore Putin at our own peril.” - Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at Investment Management Associates Story at…
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/ppi.htm
My Cmt: This commentary was too long to summarize. It was a very good read.
Over the life of this Blog, nearly 10% of the readership has been Russian. After I criticized Putin when Russia took over Crimea, Russian readers vanished. After reading the above commentary at dShort.com, I know why.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2052 (rounded).
VIX fell about 1% to 13.86.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell to 2.32.
PULLBACK COMING
-RSI remains Overbought at a high value of 91, but it can remain elevated without any reaction in the markets for some time.
-The S&P 500 Index climbed to 3.8% above the 50-dMA. That is a value that usually leads to some selling. I had to go back to November of 2013 to find a higher value.
-The percentage of stocks above their 200-dMA remained 53% Monday (data is a day late) and that is below the mean value of 65% (often a trouble signal) and is especially weak since the S&P 500 is at new highs.
-The Index has spent 6-days in the range of 2038-2041. Today it moved up 10-points. This is reminiscent of the August 2014 pattern when there were 8-days with only a 4-point range before a 9-point move up. That up-move was followed by a top and correction that began 9-days later. Today’s move is statistically significant and suggests a down move tomorrow; it could bring some further follow-thru to the downside, but this time there is no Ebola catalyst so if there is a pullback, it may again fool the prognosticators calling for a big correction.
-As of Tuesday, the S&P 500 is up 9 out of the last 10-days. That is a rare event suggesting overly bullish action that is usually followed by a down day and can sometimes be the start of a bit more selling.
- A pullback still looks likely. As always, timing is unknown, but it now looks like perhaps this week or next will see a downturn. Most likely, it will be a Short-term downturn.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) rose to 53% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +137. (It was +105 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +1. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by1-each day. Internals remained neutral on the market, but internals improved today, breaking the recent trend of deterioration.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis remained neutral Tuesday.
MY INVESTED STOCK
POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October
2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am
semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If not; it’s a dog.
