“A sharp drop in crude prices tugged down shares in oil
and gas companies on Friday, leading the Standard & Poor's 500 index to a
slight loss in a short trading session.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-energy-shares-slide-opec-052912113.htmlSeems reasonable to me, but I don’t know why. In the long run, falling oil prices should be good for the economy unless one lives in oil country (Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, etc.)
MARKET REPORT
Friday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.25% to 2068 (rounded).
VIX was up about 10% to 13.33. I am surprised by the size of this up move since it shows a sudden concern by the options market.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note fell again to 2.16, so the Bond Ghouls remain worried.
Between the VIX and Bond Market it makes one wonder whether all those bears might be right.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) remained 54% at the close Friday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Friday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +141. (It was +150 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +3. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 3-each day. Internals switched to neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2013, using these internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive out on Negative – no shorting). Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
The long-term NTSM system analysis switched to HOLD Friday. Only the
Price indicator remains positive. Others
are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October 2014 as a trade and increased my position in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall. I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): HOLD
It certainly looks like the oils and oils services made a bottom today. Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If not; it’s a dog. I’m tempted to sell after today’s rout (ESV was down 9%.), but I’d like to watch this for a while. I’ve already taken a beating and it can’t get too much worse.
ENSCO ANALYSIS FROM THE STREET.COM
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12968993/1/ensco-esv-stock-hits-52-week-low-as-oil-prices-hit-four-year-low.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
