“New orders for U.S. factory goods fell for second straight month in September, a temporary setback for the manufacturing sector…[BUT]...Unfilled orders at factories rose 0.3 percent after increasing 0.6 percent in August. Order backlogs have increased in 17 of the last 18 months.” Story at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-factory-orders-fall-unfilled-150950595.html
TRADE DEFICIT INCREASES (Bloomberg)
The trade deficit in the U.S. widened in September as exports cooled from a record, highlighting how weakening global growth will affect the world’s largest economy. The gap grew by 7.6 percent to $43 billion, the largest since May…” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-04/trade-deficit-widens-to-four-month-high-as-u-s-exports-decline.html
RSI
Today’s RSI (14-dSMA) was 87 and that remains an overbought value that is quite high. This suggests some pullback of the S&P 500.
MARKET REPORT
Tuesday, the S&P 500 was down 0.3%, to 2012 (rounded).
VIX was up about 1% to 14.89.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained unchanged at 2.34%.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 57% at the close Tuesday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Tuesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +130. (It was +217 Monday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was +8. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 8 each day. Internals remained neutral on the market, but worsened because new-hi/new-lo data is falling. If this keeps up there will be a pullback of some kind as is suggested by RSI.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
The long-term NTSM system analysis remains BUY Tuesday. Price and Volume indicators are positive. Others indicators are neutral. This is not important now since a BUY signal was issued near the recent low in mid-October.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October 2014 as a trade and increased my position in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall. I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If oil continues to fall, this stock will remain a dog.
