“As 2015 draws near, [Wall Street strategist, Thomas Lee] sees continued upside. ‘We're in a seasonally strong period, so I think the markets will close above our targets,’ Lee said. ‘I would say if you feel uncomfortable being long, it's a good sign because that's how bull markets should feel.’ Lee played down the rally in utility stocks, typically seen as a bearish sign because investors see the utilities as less volatile. He noted utilities tend to perform well in bull markets, too, and otherwise account for just 2 percent of the S&P.” Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102178470?trknav=homestack:topnews:4
A LITTLE PROFIT TAKING MIGHT BE WISE (MarketWatch)
“Even though the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied nearly 220 points in less than a month, there is still more upside potential to this stock market. No confirmed sell signals have arisen…all of the intermediate-term indicators remain bullish at this time. But some negatives are beginning to appear, so it is wise to take partial profits and/or roll long call option positions up to higher strikes. However, don't anticipate sell signals. Wait for them to actually occur before you give up your long positions or go short.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-confirmed-sell-signals-but-a-little-profit-taking-might-be-wise-2014-11-12?link=MW_home_latest_news
The above commentary included a detailed technical analysis of the market and is worth the read for stock techno-nerds. I’m not taking profits because I am conservatively positioned with only 50% invested in the stock market.
MORE HYPE OVER GLOBAL WARMING (Global Economic Analysis)
“China agreed to cap its emissions by 2030
(earlier if possible, but no guarantees)… President Obama pledged to cut
US carbon emissions by 26-28% of 2005 levels by 2025.” Is this a good deal? For
the answer (if you don’t know) see here…http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
My cmt: Let’s put more US citizens out of work while the Chinese continue pollute the world. Note that that says nothing about global warming.
RUSSIAN TROOPS IN EASTERN UKRAINE (CNBC)
“NATO's top commander says new columns of Russian troops and tanks have rolled into eastern Ukraine, a claim promptly denied by Moscow. U.S. Gen. Philip Breedlove said Wednesday that in the last two days "we have seen columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops entering into Ukraine." Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102177213#.
MARKET REPORT
Wednesday, the S&P 500 was down 0.1% to 2038 (rounded).
VIX was up about 1% to 13.02.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note remained 2.36.
RSI remains Overbought at a high value of 88.
The S&P 500 Index is 3.3% above the 50-dMA. That is a value that usually leads to some selling.
Market Internals are deteriorating, but rather slowly. A small pullback still looks likely.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks advancing (NYSE) fell to 57% at the close Wednesday. (A number above 50% is usually good news for the markets.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Wednesday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +91. (It was +153 Tuesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread was minus-5. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has declined 5-each day. Internals remained neutral on the market, because the smoothed 10-day slope of advancing volume is falling and New-high/new-lo data has deteriorated.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility,
straight-up year like 2013.
The long-term NTSM system analysis remains BUY Wednesday. Price and Volume indicators are positive. Others indicators are neutral. This buy signal is not important now since a BUY signal was issued near the recent low in mid-October.
MY INVESTED STOCK
POSITION
I moved some funds back into the market on 17 October
2014 as a trade and increased my position
in stocks from 30% to about 40% overall.
I added more 20 Oct, to bring my stock investments up to 50%. I am
semi-retired, 50% is Fully-invested for me. I remain 50% invested in stocks.--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
The chart looks good and oil prices are close to a bottom so I think Ensco is again a Buy. See related video on this page…
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=esv&ql=1
Ensco price is going to reflect oil prices. If you think they are near a bottom, this is a great buy with high dividends. If not; it’s a dog.
