“U.S. consumer confidence surged to an 18-year high in September as households grew more upbeat about the labor market, pointing to sustained strength in the economy despite an increasingly bitter trade dispute between the United States and China.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-confidence/u-s-consumer-confidence-hits-18-year-high-house-prices-slowing-idUSKCN1M51YY
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 2916.
-VIX rose about 2% to 12.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was a bit higher at
3.095% as of 4:46PM.
We still have a significant warning from the Fosback
Hi-Low Logic indicator. This one is based
on the fact that new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows should not both be high
numbers at the same time. When they are,
it shows trouble in the Markets. The Fosback high-low Logic indicator is still
issuing a warning for the long-term while the short-term indicator is close to
a sell too. Fosback said this about the one-week version of the indicator: “A
double-digit reading [like we have now] is rare and has nearly always been
followed by sharply declining stock prices.”
I would add that it may take several months for those lower prices to
show up. While this may be significant, unless we see a lot more negative
signs, I won’t get worked up about the Hi-Low Logic Indicator.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators was unchanged at
+3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -2 to +7
indicating that conditions are better than 2-weeks ago.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume
& VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
