"U.S. retail sales barely rose in August as consumers
slowed their spending after a robust month of shopping in July.
The Commerce Department said Friday that the value of
purchases ticked up just 0.1 percent last month…” Story at…
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Reuters)
“U.S. industrial production rose in August, as strong
output in auto manufacturing offset lackluster production in the rest of the
factory sector. The Federal Reserve said on Friday industrial production rose
0.4 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent increase in
July….” Story at…
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (MarketWatch)
“The confidence of Americans in the U.S. economy and
their own well-being rose toward the end of summer and stood near a 14-year
high, according to a survey of consumer sentiment. The University of
Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 100.8…”
Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 was up a point to 2905.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 12.07.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury increased to 2.997% as
of this post.
Today we had a slight improvement in indicators, but not too much
different than yesterday…
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -7
to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -54 to -56
indicating that conditions are slightly worse than 2-weeks ago.
BULLISH SIGNS
-Up volume continues to pick up.
-Size of the up-moves have been larger than the down
moves over the last month.
-Late day action (the Smart Money) is turning up.
NEUTRAL SIGNS
-Breadth (measured as the % of NYSE stocks advancing over
the past 10-days) is flat; but it is only 48.4% indicating that less than half
of all stocks on the NYSE have been advancing over the last 10-days.
-VIX is neutral.
-Bollinger Bands and VIX are not giving a signal.
BEAR SIGNS
-Breadth vs the S&P 500 index indicates that the
Index is too far ahead of most stocks on the NYSE.
-New-high/new-low data is headed lower.
-Money Trend is falling.
-Statistically, the S&P 500 is too calm (measured by
daily moves) suggesting some down moves ahead.
Overall, the indicators are still slightly negative, but
I think the market will climb somewhat higher before we see a retreat. If I’m
wrong, we’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the
indicators really turn south.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Friday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was
negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
