“Nonfarm payrolls rose 201,000 from the prior month,
topping the median forecast for 190,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was
unchanged at 3.9 percent, still near the lowest since the 1960s...the Federal
Reserve [remains] on track to lift interest rates this month and…another hike
in December [is no] more likely.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 2872.
-VIX rose about 2% to 14.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped up to 2.939% as
of this post.
Perhaps we’ll have to wait for turnaround Tuesday. It is
likely that investors will worry over the weekend and continue selling so we
might see a big down day Monday. That
would set us up for Turn-round Tuesday when the Pros decide enough-is-enough
and start buying again…of course, we have no crystal ball – selling may
continue. Here’s a quote and link discussing Turnaround Tuesday:
“In every case, Tuesday has shown the most
gains—hence the Turnaround Tuesday reputation appears well earned. Though it
wasn’t the highest percentage in every case, it was the strongest day on
average.” Analysis at…
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -8
to -4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -2 to -11
indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago. Indicators still have a negative outlook at
this point.
It still looks like the Index will fall to the 50-dMA. We’ll
worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south. Both Utilities and
XLI spread vs. the S&P 500 are turning more bullish, so it doesn’t look
like a serious drop is near.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Friday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was
negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
