“The National Federation of Independent Business' small
business optimism index hit the highest level in the survey's 45-year history
in August.” Story at…
JOLTS (Bloomberg)
“U.S. job openings rose in July to a fresh record and the
biggest share of workers since 2001 quit their positions, adding to signs of
labor-market strength that may push wages higher, Labor Department data showed
Tuesday.” Story at…
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 2889.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 13.39.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.981% as of
this post.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators dipped from -5
to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -22 to -34 indicating
that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.
As has been true for some time, indicators still have a negative outlook
at this point, but are not all that bad. We haven’t seen a concerted warning by topping
indicators either.
It still looks like the Index will fall to the 50-dMA.
We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south. Both Utilities and
XLI spread vs. the S&P 500 are more bullish than a few days ago, so it doesn’t look
like a serious drop is near.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Tuesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was
negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
