“The wholesale cost of U.S. goods and services fell in
August for the first time in a year and a half as the recent upturn in
inflation appeared to ease, at least temporarily. The producer
price index declined by 0.1% last month…” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“A day after the American Petroleum Institute gave oil
bulls a cause for celebration with an estimated 8.636-million-barrel inventory
decline for the week to September 7, the Energy Information Administration
added to the optimism by reporting a
draw of 5.3 million barrels.” Story at…
Oil prices were up as a result if the draw.
FED BEIGE BOOK (Business Insider)
“U.S. businesses have scaled back or postponed
investments in several parts of the country due to concerns about international
trade tensions, the Federal Reserve said on Wednesday…Despite the trade
tensions, the Fed said the economy was expanding at a moderate pace and a tight
job market has led to labor shortages across the country and in many
occupations.” Story at…
SUSPECTS NAMED IN NOVICHOK POISONING (BBC)
“Two Russian nationals have been named as suspects in the
attempted murder of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia. The
men, using the names Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, are thought to be
officers from Russia's military intelligence service [GRU], the PM [Prime
Minister] said. Scotland Yard and the CPS say there is enough evidence to
charge the men.” Story at…
Trump-Putin 2020: Make Russia Great Again!
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 2889.
-VIX dropped about 1% to 13.10.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.966% as of
this post.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -6
to -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -34 to -41
indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago. As has been true for some time, indicators
still have a negative outlook at this point, but are not all that bad. We haven’t seen a concerted warning by topping
indicators either.
Up-volume is picking up and that’s a good sign.
It still looks like the Index may fall to the 50-dMA.
We’ll worry if the Index falls below the 50-day value…or if the indicators really turn south. Both Utilities and
XLI spread vs. the S&P 500 are turning more bullish, so it doesn’t look
like a serious drop is near.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained NEGATIVE on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Wednesday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment was
negative; Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
