“New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods fell in
August after four straight months of strong gains, while shipments barely rose,
but that will probably not change expectations of solid growth in business
spending on equipment in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said on
Thursday that orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a
closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.5 percent last
month…” Story at…
GDP (MarketWatch)
“U.S. real gross domestic product for the second quarter
rose at a 4.2% annualized rate, unrevised from the earlier estimate, the
Commerce Department said Thursday.” Story at…
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits rose last week,
reflecting jumps in states hit by Hurricane Florence, though the national
figure remains near the lowest in almost five decades, Labor Department figures
showed Thursday.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 2914.
-VIX dipped about 4% to 12.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.053% as of
4:57PM.
Dip buyers moved in today, but trouble remains on the
horizon.
We still have a significant warning from the Fosback Hi-Low
Logic indicator. This one is based on
the fact that new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows should not both be high
numbers at the same time. The Fosback Logic indicator can have very long lead times so we can't worry over this one too much. It is also a worry to see new 52-week lows exceeding
52-week highs. That is a recipe for a correction if it continues.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators remained -7 (a
positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day smoothed
version that negates the daily fluctuations remained +3 indicating that
conditions are slightly better than 2-weeks ago.
For now, we’re in a bit of a flux as we wait for more
information. Where do the markets go
from here? Up or down? There aren’t enough negative signs to suggest a
significant sell-off, but neither do we feel overly optimistic. All in all, I
remain a cautious Bull.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained
Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative
– no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume
& VIX were neutral. Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
