Employment Cost ... Chicago PMI ... Personal Income ... PCE ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (CNN)
“Compensation for US workers picked up in the first three months of the year, showing that a major source of inflationary pressure persists and cementing the path for an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. The Employment Cost Index...showed that workers were paid 1.2% more in wages and benefits in the first quarter from the prior three-month period.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/28/economy/q1-employment-cost-index/index.html
 
PERSONAL INCOME / PCE PRICES  
“...personal income increased by 0.3% or $67.9 billion in March... The PCE price index increased by 0.1%, and excluding food and energy, it increased by 0.3%...
https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/march-us-personal-income-rose-while-personal-spending-modestly-increased-and-pce-price-index-grew-slightly-1342734
 
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager's Index (Chicago Business Barometer) shifted up to 48.6 in April from 43.8 in March. This is the eighth straight month in contraction territory however its highest level the index has reached across the time frame. This reading comes in above the Investing.com forecast of 43.5.” Charts and analysis at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/28/chicago-pmi-reaches-highest-level-since-august
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 4169.
-VIX fell about 7% to 15.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.422%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 331-days.
The S&P 500 is 5.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector.  We have a good dividend in the meantime.
 
BA – Boeing reported 4/26/2023 had good numbers and gave good guidance. 
 
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Here’s my weekly review of indicators:
The weekly rundown of indicators shifted to the Bull side this week (now 9-bear and 15-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) 
 
BULL SIGNS
-There was a Follow-thru Day 28 April. This cancels all prior Distribution Days.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze. I’ll put this in the Bull column.  It looks like the break out is up.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 19 April.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is rising.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data. (Turned up today.)
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish, but may soon be neutral.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is up.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
 
NEUTRAL
-There have only been 4 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-The S&P 500 is 5.2% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-12 April there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day – expired.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 6 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-S&P 500 is underperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF), but not by much and it is headed up. Call it neutral.
-49% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – neutral.
 
BEAR SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row – bearish.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is on the sell side and falling.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 25 April.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
 
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are 9 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Last week, there were 11 bear-sign and 11 bull-signs.
 
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -7 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -30 to -25. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull. The market looks better, given the improvement in the Long-Term Indicator Ensemble and the Friday Indicator Summary. Price action has been better, too.  The FED meets 2 & 3 May, so that may depress markets early next week.  I’ll add to stock holdings and go all in again if the FED says they are putting their rate hikes on hold. A quarter point hike this time is expected.  We need to hear that rate hikes are on hold awaiting further data.  If not, expect markets to have some angst, especially if the FED signals more rate hikes.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

GDP ... Jobless Claims ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
GDP (NY Times)
“Gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation, rose at a 1.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday. That was down from a 2.6 percent rate in the last three months of 2022...” Story at...
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/27/business/economy/gdp-q1-economy.html
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell last week as the labor market continues to show strength despite some weakness in other parts of the economy. The number of Americans filing for jobless claims for the week ending April 22 fell by 16,000 to 230,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-2491e013fc787764dde2d37f08ce7f26
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 2% to 4135.
-VIX fell about 10% to 17.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.525%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 15.4% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 330-days.
The S&P 500 is 4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector.  We have a good dividend in the meantime.
 
BA – Boeing reported 4/26/2023 had good numbers and gave good guidance. 
 
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Thursday, there is still a Bollinger Squeeze. A squeeze precedes a big breakout either up or down. RSI is 53, a neutral reading. Bollinger Bands are now closer to “overbought” so it looks like the break out direction is a toss-up.
 
It’s always tempting to buy more stock when it looks like markets are improving.  Both price and Internals were good today and it feels like there is a more positive attitude with the tech sector improving.  I don’t see it in the indicators yet.  They are a bit more bearish, but probably not much different than they were Friday, so I am not in a rush to reset my 2x leveraged positions.
 
The Friday summary of indicators will be interesting. 
 
Today was a statistically significant up-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the time. 
 
If Friday is another big up-day, it would be a bullish sign that might entice me to add to my stock positions.
 
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -8 to -7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -23 to -30. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 

 

My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.

 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

Durable Orders ... Crude Oil Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“I cannot agree to vote for a full increase in the debt without any assurance that steps will be taken early next year to reduce the alarming increase in the deficits and the debt.” - Sen. Joe Biden, October 1984. Biden now opposes exactly what he supported in 1984. Politicians...don’t you just love em?
 
DURABLE ORDERS (SME Manufacturing Tech Series)
“Orders for durable goods increased in March after a surge in orders for aircraft, the Commerce Department said today. Durable goods orders rose 3.2% to $276.4 billion, the department said in a monthly report. That snapped a streak of two monthly declines, including a fall of 1.2% in February. Excluding transportation, orders advanced 0.3%.
 
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 460.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.4% to 4056.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 18.84. (Options traders don’t seem worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.450%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 15.4% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 328-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.6% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector.  We have a good dividend in the meantime.
 
BA – Boeing reported 4/26/2023 and gave good guidance going forward.  BA was up nearly 5% on the news, but faded along with the markets on renewed bank fears.
 
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Repeating from yesterday: Today, there is still a Bollinger Squeeze. Investopedia says, “When Bollinger Bands® are far apart, volatility is high. When they are close together, it is low. A Squeeze is triggered when volatility reaches a six-month low and is identified when Bollinger Bands® reach a six-month minimum distance apart.”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp
A squeeze precedes a big breakout either up or down. Bollinger said to use RSI and a couple of other indicators I don’t follow to determine the direction of the breakout. RSI is 43 and is closer to oversold than overbought. Bollinger Bands are also close to “oversold” so it looks like the break out should be up.
 
S&P 500 is less than 1% above its 50-dMA. Since I am still bullish, I expect the 50-dMA to hold.  If the S&P 500 drops lower, I may have to reconsider.
 
Breadth continues to deteriorate. Both the 10dMA and the 50dMA of the % of issues advancing on the NYSE are below 50%. The 100-day and 150-day are also close to the 50% mark. Falling breadth is a worrisome issue for investors.
 
The Friday summary of indicators will be interesting.  For now, the long-term indicator ensemble is closer to Buy than Sell, so I am not taking any action yet.  I did sell leveraged positions (2x ETFs) when this recent weakness started.
 
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -9 to -8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -11 to -23. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as always. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.
 

Consumer Confidence ... New Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (The Hill)
“Consumer confidence fell to a 9-month low in April amid fears of a looming recession, according to a survey released by the Conference Board Tuesday.  The business group’s closely watched consumer confidence index fell for the third time in four months and reached its lowest level since July 2022. The index fell from 104 in March to 101.3 in April.” Story at... 
https://thehill.com/business/economy/3970868-consumer-confidence-falls-to-9-month-low/
 
NEW HOME SALES (CNN)
“New home sales rose in March, climbing for the fourth month in a row as mortgage rates eased and buyers looked to new construction as an alternative to the tight inventory of existing homes for sale.
Sales of newly constructed homes were up 9.6% in March from February, but were down 3.4% from a year ago
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/25/homes/new-home-sales-march/index.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.6% to 4072.
-VIX rose about 11% to 18.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.402%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 15.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 328-days.
The S&P 500 is 2.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 0.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector.  We have a good dividend in the meantime.
 
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
 
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today, there was a Bollinger Squeeze. Investopedia says, “When Bollinger Bands® are far apart, volatility is high. When they are close together, it is low. A Squeeze is triggered when volatility reaches a six-month low and is identified when Bollinger Bands® reach a six-month minimum distance apart.”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp
A squeeze precedes a big breakout either up or down. Bollinger said to use RSI and a couple of other indicators I don’t follow to determine the direction of the breakout. RSI is 44 and is closer to oversold than overbought. Bollinger Bands are also close to “oversold” so it looks like the break out should be up. That would match the rising triangle pattern we have been following. It is a continuation pattern and the overall trend has been up, if we disregard the flat period the S&P 500 has been following recently.
 
S&P 500 is less than 1% above its 50-dMA. Since I am still bullish, I expect the 50-dMA to hold.  If the S&P 500 drops lower, I may have to reconsider.
 
Today was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. 
 
There were some bear signs that popped up today. I’ll follow them. It could be that I’ll need to get bearish, but so far, I feel that bullish is still appropriate even though the short-term indicators were down.
 
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +1 to -9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from zero to -11. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral. At this point, the Buy signal just means that the market is looking positive, so it can indicate a Buy at tops. This indicator is designed to call turns in the market. 
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as always. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 “Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
WATCHING PAINT DRY (Heritage Capital)
“I have argued strongly that a new bull market began in October 2022. And the VIX confirmed this in Q1. These bearish pundits hootin’ and hollerin’ about a VIX under 20 are barking up the wrong tree. It’s a good sign for the market, for now. There’s an old adage in that says to never short a dull market. I don’t know who to credit with that, but it makes sense. While I do see some cracks in the stock market right now, like a poorly performing banking sector and groups of stocks breaking down, the market has done an excellent job of internally rotating from index to index and sector to sector.” Commentary at... 
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/like-watching-paint-dry-2/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4137.
-VIX rose about 1% to 16.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.489%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.7% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 327-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector.  We have a good dividend in the meantime.
 
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
 
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators were neutral Friday and there was nothing today to change a basically neutral view.  
 
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from -1 to +1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +3 to +0. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral. At this point, the Buy signal just means that the market is looking positive, so it can indicate a Buy at tops. This indicator is designed to call turns in the market. 
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as always. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.
 

Markit PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
MARKIT COMPOSITE PMI (S&P Global)
“The headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index registered 53.5 in April, up from 52.3 in March, to signal the quickest upturn in business activity since May 2022. The increase in output was the third in as many months. The faster rise in activity was broad-based, with service sector firms registering the sharper rate of growth. Where a rise in activity was noted, firms linked this to greater customer confidence and a stronger uptick in new orders. Some companies also noted that an improvement in their ability to hire staff had boosted output.” Report at...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/fc17fd9e64e74c93a6b5e41bc6773817
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4134.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 16.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.577%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 13.9% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 326-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector.  We have a good dividend in the meantime.
 
BA – Boeing has more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward; however, Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand. Thursday, 4/13/23, Boeing fell 5% after hours. “Boeing on Thursday warned it will likely have to reduce deliveries of its 737 Max airplane in the near term because of a problem with a part made by supplier Spirit AeroSystems.” From...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/13/boeing-warns-of-reduced-737-max-production-and-deliveries-due-to-parts-issue.html
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. The warnings are not encouraging.
 
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Yesterday, I posted a chart showing the rising triangle currently on the S&P 500 chart.  The scales were a bit funky so here is a better chart. As noted, the pattern is generally a continuation pattern so, with luck, we may see the market break the upper trend line and accelerate higher. The pattern should break soon; then we’ll have a better idea of where the market is likely to go. The red and green circles are Statistically Significant days in my system.
 
The weekly rundown of indicators remained neutral this week (now 11-bear and 11-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.) 
 
BULL SIGNS
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 19 April.
-Slope of the 200-dMA is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 21 March, although it is now close to a bearish reversal.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is bullish.
-On average, the size of up-moves has larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY; the 5-dEMA and 10-dEMA are both above the 20-dEMA.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
 
NEUTRAL
-There were Distribution Days 12 & 20 April - not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is flat.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative Friday, so this indicator has expired.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March. Another one will push this into the Bear category.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-The S&P 500 is 4.4% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 8 April 2022 – expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired
-54% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days – neutral.
 
BEAR SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is below 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row – bearish.
-12 April there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is on the sell side and falling.
-My Money Trend indicator is falling.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is falling.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500.
-S&P 500 is underperforming Utilities (XLU-ETF).
 
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there are 11 bear-signs and 11-Bull. Last week, there were 12 bear-sign and 14 bull-signs.
 
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +3 to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +7 to +3. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral. At this point, the Buy signal just means that the market is looking positive, so it can indicate a Buy at tops. This indicator is designed to call turns in the market. 
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull, watching indicators as always. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.