Small Business Optimism ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“...a high percentage of electric cars are being
totaled after only being involved in what appears to be minor collisions...The
main reason that EVs are being scrapped is due to the fact that there is no
viable way to repair even slightly damaged batteries which are turning out to
be a disaster for insurance companies whilst also increasing motor insurance
for drivers across the board.” From...
The
Real Reason Why Electric Cars Are Being Totaled After A Minor Accident
(msn.com)
CPI will be released tomorrow, 12 April, at 8:30am.
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“Small business owners are cynical about future economic
conditions,” said NFIB
Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Hiring plans fell to their
lowest level since May 2020, but strong consumer spending has kept Main Street
alive and supported strong labor demand.”
-Forty-three percent of owners reported job openings that
were hard to fill, down four points from February and remaining historically
very high.
-The net percent of owners raising average selling prices
decreased one point to a net 37% seasonally adjusted.
-The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be
higher deteriorated six points from February to a net negative 15%.” Press
release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was unchanged at 4109.
-VIX rose about 0.7% to 19.1.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.428%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a
closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 318-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.9%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much
recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the
sector. We have a good dividend in the
meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They
have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward.
Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on
fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for
me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 was flat today, but you wouldn’t know it
from the internals. Advancing issues were 3 times declining issues; up volume
was more than 3 times down volume; new highs outpaced new-lows 2 to 1. Industrials
outpaced the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 led all major indeces. Usually, that kind of daily, bullish-action
leads to an up-day very soon. The market action suggests that investors expect
good news on inflation Wednesday.
The Advance/Decline ratio is still overbought so perhaps
it will take another day or two for a reversal?
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) slipped from +4 to +2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from +55 to +49. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: VOLUME & PRICE are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull, but I’ll be watching
indicators as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals dipped to HOLD. (Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
