“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“I think Donald Trump is the only Republican [Biden] can
beat...I don’t think he could beat any other Republican that could get nominated.
But the economy will still be the thing that determines this, and I think we
have more bumps ahead.” – Chris Christie, Former Republican Governor of NJ.
“Research published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society found
that more than 500 home runs since 2010 can be attributed to
higher-than-average temperatures resulting from climate change - with several
hundred more home runs per season to come with future warming.” – From...
https://www.kulr8.com/news/national/why-climate-change-may-be-responsible-for-home-run-surge-in-major-league-baseball/article_e285ce49-6324-5658-87ff-075becb176ed.html#:~:text=Research%20published%20in%20the%20Bulletin,to%20come%20with%20future%20warming.
My cmt: Temperatures have risen 1 degree centigrade in the last 100-years due to man-made greenhouse gases, primarily CO2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) categorizes “climate” in 30-year slices, so looking at a 12 year period of more home (2010-2022) runs is highly suspect and suggests that the data has been cherry-picked, but who can blame them? Even Dennis is in on the game:
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4109.
-VIX bucked the trend and rose about 3% to 18.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.418%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 317-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Most indicators still seem positive, but not all. Buying Pressure/Selling Pressure is drifting slightly to the sell-side as is my Money Trend Indicator. It follows a different analysis method to get a similar result. The 50-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is still below 50% (4th day in a row), a bearish indication. Nothing really jumps out as a warning now, though, so I will stay fully invested.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) improved from +3 to +6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from +49 to +57. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: VOLUME & PRICE are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull, but I’ll be watching indicators
as always.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
https://www.kulr8.com/news/national/why-climate-change-may-be-responsible-for-home-run-surge-in-major-league-baseball/article_e285ce49-6324-5658-87ff-075becb176ed.html#:~:text=Research%20published%20in%20the%20Bulletin,to%20come%20with%20future%20warming.
My cmt: Temperatures have risen 1 degree centigrade in the last 100-years due to man-made greenhouse gases, primarily CO2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) categorizes “climate” in 30-year slices, so looking at a 12 year period of more home (2010-2022) runs is highly suspect and suggests that the data has been cherry-picked, but who can blame them? Even Dennis is in on the game:
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4109.
-VIX bucked the trend and rose about 3% to 18.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.418%.
-Drop from Top: 14.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 317-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
Most indicators still seem positive, but not all. Buying Pressure/Selling Pressure is drifting slightly to the sell-side as is my Money Trend Indicator. It follows a different analysis method to get a similar result. The 50-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is still below 50% (4th day in a row), a bearish indication. Nothing really jumps out as a warning now, though, so I will stay fully invested.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
