“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
FACTORY ORDERS (Forex.com)
“Factory Orders in the US declined more than expected in February. US Dollar Index stays in negative territory below 102.00. The data published by the US Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday that new orders for manufactured goods, Factory Orders, decreased $3.9 billion, or by 0.7%, in February...” story at...
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1214201-us-factory-orders-decline-by-07-in-february
JOLTS-JOB OPENINGS (CNBC)
“Job openings fell below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years, in a sign that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow the labor market may be having some impact. Available positions totaled 9.93 million, a drop of 632,000 from January’s downwardly revised number...On the positive side, there were 129,000 new construction jobs available, though that was the only category that saw a noticeable bump.” Story at....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/jolts-february-2023-.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.6% to 4101.
-VIX rose about 2% to 18.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.342%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.5% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 314-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.6%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I measure Sentiment as a 5-day moving average of %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds. Sentiment is now bullish since investors have turned more bearish. The last time Sentiment was bullish the S&P 500 popped up about 6% before taking a pause.
I was surprised to hear so much negativism from Mid-Day
CNBC traders and the Fast Money traders at the end of the day. After 8 up-days
in 10 trading days, markets were overdue for a down-day so I place almost no importance
on today’s trading. Now that Sentiment is bullish, I am looking for continued
bullish action on the S&P 500. We’ll see...
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) slipped from +8 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are
bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved
from +34 to +40. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog
based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so
they tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator was
BUY: SENTIMENT & VOLUME are positive; VIX & PRICE are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“Factory Orders in the US declined more than expected in February. US Dollar Index stays in negative territory below 102.00. The data published by the US Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday that new orders for manufactured goods, Factory Orders, decreased $3.9 billion, or by 0.7%, in February...” story at...
https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1214201-us-factory-orders-decline-by-07-in-february
“Job openings fell below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years, in a sign that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow the labor market may be having some impact. Available positions totaled 9.93 million, a drop of 632,000 from January’s downwardly revised number...On the positive side, there were 129,000 new construction jobs available, though that was the only category that saw a noticeable bump.” Story at....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/04/jolts-february-2023-.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.6% to 4101.
-VIX rose about 2% to 18.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.342%.
-Drop from Top: 14.5% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 314-days.
The S&P 500 is 4.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.9% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
QLD – 2xNasdaq 100
SSO – 2x S&P 500
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It hasn’t been doing much recently, but Russia is cutting production and that should help the sector. We have a good dividend in the meantime.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see. They have more work than they can handle and are hiring. They should do well going forward. Boeing reports earnings 4/26/2023. Boeing was downgraded 4/4/2023 based on fears that they will not be able to ramp up production to meet demand.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me. I have no cash left.
I measure Sentiment as a 5-day moving average of %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds. Sentiment is now bullish since investors have turned more bearish. The last time Sentiment was bullish the S&P 500 popped up about 6% before taking a pause.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
