ADP Employment ... GDP ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down
education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can
vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions,
repeat slogans—anything except reason.” - Thomas
Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
“This has nothing to do with whether you thought Trump
was a good or bad president...I am as certain as I am writing this that Donald
Trump will never again be elected president of these United States... The
greatest peril for the country is four (more) years of Democrats in power. The
difference this time ’round is that Trump’s nomination would guarantee that
this peril becomes our reality " - Andy McCarthy, columnist, National
Review (a conservative publication).
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is
simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured,
does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not
distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does
not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into
debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar
spent on education or new means of production, is counted the same as every
dollar spent on epic bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz,
Real Investment Advice
GDP – 2ND ESTIMATE (CNBC)
“U.S. economic growth was revised lower to a still-solid
pace in the second quarter...Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1%
annualized rate last quarter...That was revised down from the 2.4% pace
reported last month.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/30/us-second-quarter-gdp-growth-revised-lower.html
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via prnewswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in
August and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the
August ADP® National
Employment Report produced by the ADP Research Institute®...”
Story at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-177-000-jobs-in-august-annual-pay-was-up-5-9-301913687.html
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 10.6 million barrels from the
previous week. At 422.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 4515.
-VIX slipped about 4% to 13.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.113%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 416-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.7% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.1%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October lows).
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Wednesday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often
said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market
turning points. Indications are improving, so if this is a turning point, I’d
have to assume it is confirmation of the correction-over signs we’ve seen for
the recent, small 5% pullback. That’s my guess; “high-unchanged-volume” is not one
of my indicators because it is often wrong, and like today, sometimes hard to
interpret.
Utilities were sold today. That’s a bullish-sign for the
day. Longer term, my "Utilities vs. the
S&P 500" indicator is also bullish.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +8 to +14 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -37
to -17. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is Bullish; VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am Bullish. Indicators continue to improve.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
