Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Another referred to fire cannot reach its roots what he
said, fire cannot reach its roots.” - President Uncle Joe Biden speaking
gibberish in Maui while butchering the names of dignitaries present. Yes he really said that. As Joe
said in his speech, it was a “travedy.” Uncle Joe is no
longer capable. Democrats, SAVE US!
“Lahaina literally means “cruel sun.” This part of Maui
has always been hot and dry and is subject to wild brush fires. Hawaii has vast areas of unmanaged, nonnative grasslands
from decades of declining agriculture. Professor Vitousek of Stanford says, “There is no doubt
that fire-prone grasses have invaded drier Hawaiian ecosystems and brought
larger, more intense fires.” Clay Trauernicht, professor and environmental management
expert at the University of Hawaii agrees. “Blaming this on weather and climate
is misleading.” He even warned about this scenario four years ago in Maui News. Maui was at great risk.” Story at...
WALKER:
Americans Deserve Better Than Climate Change Lies. Here’s What Really Caused
The Maui Wildfires (msn.com)
EXISTING HOME SALES (22 August 2023)
“Sales of previously owned homes dropped 2.2% in July
from June...Sales were 16.6% lower compared with July of last year. Homes sold
at the slowest July pace since 2010.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/22/home-sales-drop-again-in-july-as-supply-drops-again.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.3% to 4388.
-VIX slipped about 1% to 16.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.329
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 410-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1.6%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (I bought more XLY
Monday.)
SPY – I bought the S&P 500 Friday.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We haven’t seen much improvement in breadth. I measure
breadth as the percentage of stocks advancing over a given time. We need to see
the 10-day moving average of breadth improve. That’s a sign that would indicate that the
correction is ending. There was a little improvement today. Let’s hope that improvement continues. Smart
Money (late-day action) is improving – that’s a good sign.
I’ll probably add XLE (Energy ETF) tomorrow. If the
correction were to continue, I’ll just hold recent purchases. As I’ve noted many times, short-term calls
are hard to impossible.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
-4 to -2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -62 to -56.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral. There were a
lot of oversold signs last week suggesting markets are in the vicinity of an oversold
bottom.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. If the correction
continues, it is not likely we’ll see a low much lower than 4200-4300.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
